The Pit


Make 4th (out of the pit)?

Poll ended at February 1st, 2013, 1:07 am

Yes
15
27%
No
40
73%
 
Total votes : 55

yuvken (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 11:30 am

So we dug ourselves one.

In my opinion, this is worse than the time we had to go get Arshavin to bail us out. Our chances of making 4th right now seem... well, not so great.

Intentions: this is not a moan thread.
You are welcome to: assess whether it really is our worst pit.
Talk about our chances of escape (escape being "ze prize", to be clear).
What we need to do for that (no, it's not an invitation to bitch/moan: but you can talk about a signing, a-la Arsh that time. Or formation adjustments. Or "beat spuds at SHL and Utd in April, and drop no more than 8 pts till the end :) ).
Point tally - what you guess is possible, what you think will be that escape.

Maybe we'll add a "make 4th" poll - yes/no? we'll see.

One last time: don't use this to vent frustration, please.

Last edited by yuvken on January 22nd, 2013, 1:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

fabo (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 11:37 am

We are pathetic and don't deserve Top 4. We'll see what a wake-up call that provides - IMO, not a significant one, more likely we'll use the Europa League as a valid excuse not to spend(which it might be) but we all know we are doing piss all while in the CL anyway. Money-making exercise, no hope of winning it, still selling big and buying low. Spurs and Liverpool want CL to push them on, buy better players, pay bigger wages.

We are 22 pts behind United, we are 19 pts clear of bottom-placed QPR. 34 pts after 22 games, level with Liverpool who have reached our standard again. We will finish with pts in the 60 range which is dusgusting for Arsenal FC.

psycho (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 11:41 am

Well it is already out of our hands now. Not sure if it has happened this early previously, but we are already hoping for Tottenham and Everton to slip up.

Not to mention Liverpool and West Brom are on even points.

I think this is the worst "pit" we have been in mainly because the amount of candidates for fourth is way more than we are used to.

yuvken (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 11:55 am

fabo wrote:We are pathetic and don't deserve Top 4. We'll see what a wake-up call that provides

Yes, thank you fabo, I almost forgot: what will it do to us if we don't make 4th? is a subject I'd welcome here (in fact, this is the subject that was on my mind when I started this, and them I forgot :lol: ).

Deserve? I'll allow, but do avoid "pathetic" and stuff. IT IS NOT A MOANING THREAD!

Last edited by yuvken on January 21st, 2013, 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DJ_Markstar (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 11:59 am

Right now the problem is no real standout talent. Before we had obvious world class surrounded by dross - Fabregas, RvP, arguably Nasri etc. are all top players.

Now our worst players are better but our best players are worse, and so we're in a worse position overall. Our current squad plus RvP and Fabregas would be 10 points better off minimum.

GOONER1991 (Trusted Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:01 pm

After everything, this morning I went on Arsenal.com and went to see how much tickets were for the West Ham match. They were priced £49 to £73 for the ones I looked at.

The club has just gone completely bonkers.

In football terms, we are in the worst shape that we have been in in the past 8 years. We look lost, with no spark of inspiration. Our only spark comes in the form of Jack Wilshere, who is only 21 and we can't expect him to carry this team by himself.

yuvken (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:02 pm

psycho wrote:Well it is already out of our hands now.

What do you mean? in the sense that beating Spuds at SHL will leave us still a point behind? There's a limit to how much we can stretch a concept, and this (16 games to the end!) is surely beyond that limit.
You can say it looks increasingly like we will have to beat them there, and surely avoid defeat (that latter case could prove the last nail).

60 points? we're on 34, with 16 games to go (48 pts in theory). 60 means we drop 22 points more. that's not unrealistic (we're on course for 58-9 its ATM), but still looks a bit gloomy. I still think we can do between 65-70. But will it be enough?

dysphoria (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:03 pm

if we end up 4th at spur's or chelsea's expense come end of this season, it will arguably be wenger's WORST AND GREATEST season he's ever had and will ever have, at the same time. Worst for leading/allowing us to be in a situation like this and best for taking a team desperately short of sufficient talent, especially when compared to chelsea and arguably spurs but realistically, i don't see it happening for us because we're missing rvp. The biggest difference between the team now and the team last season is how obviously we lack a properly talented forward who'll consistently get you goals, both outta nothing situations and easy chances.

This is the simple nature of life, when you fail to improve while others around you are, you will fall behind, you only have to look at how many individual errors we've consistently made throughout the season to realize that it won't be solved in a matter of weeks, if we get 4th, it'll be by a huge stroke of luck and some massive bottling of arsenal proportions from the other teams around us.

Original_AAA (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:06 pm

If we win against West Ham we will be in exactly the same spot as in 05/06. After match day 23:

05/06:
4. Tottenham 41 points +12
5. Arsenal 37 points +17

12/13:
4. Tottenham 41 points +12
5. Arsenal 37 points +16 or more(we have +15 before the match)

Both seasons also saw us head out of the CC in the semi-finals btw. At the time we were 25 points of Chelsea and 15 points ahead of Bolton(17th). We ended the season on 68 points securing 4th only because of "Lasagnagate".

That season we responded by buying Walcott, Adebayor and Diaby in January. It also saw us go to the final of CL with only 4 goals the wrong way.

My point is this: we have been here before and history shows us that we need to act and sign a couple of players. Unless we get a few quality signings in and strike it lucky yet again, it is hard to see us doing a repeat of the 05/06 comeback.
User avatar

yuvken (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:08 pm

DJ_Markstar wrote:Right now the problem is no real standout talent..

Image
Our current squad plus RvP and Fabregas would be 10 points better off minimum.
:woot our current squad with Fab and VP would have won the league in their sleep.

dpt49 (Banned) on January 21st, 2013, 12:10 pm

Most people are assuming we could either dig ourselves out of the pit or get fifth place.
Just remember there is just as much chance of us getting worse and ending up below spuds Everton and Liverpool.
I don't see us being below all of them but I could easily see us being lower than two of them.

In the time that Wenger has been here this is easily the worst position we have been in and to make it worse we do not have a Cesc or RVP to get us out of the situation.

We were just as bad last season but RVP was the difference between us getting CL or Europa league football.

We have replaced him with Giroud and he is not going to score the thirty or so goals we need this season.

Like you said in your opening post, it would be interesting to see a poll asking whether supporters believe we can get in the top four.

I said before the start of the season that I doubted whether we could, but now I believe it is highly unlikely.

yuvken (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:13 pm

dysphoria wrote:if we end up 4th at spur's or chelsea's expense come end of this season, it will arguably be wenger's WORST AND GREATEST season he's ever had and will ever have, at the same time.

I agree on thus far, but at this rate - who knows? he just keeps digging a deeper pit every time, only to prove he can dig us out :P .
It really did look quite deep last year, you remember. And yes, VP, but -

Image[quote]

I just lllove that player/gif :lol: .

yuvken (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:18 pm

Credit to all of you, good - and relatively moan free :thumbup - posts so far.

I'm a bit surprised no one talks about one obvious point: we went for Arshavin back when, we still have 10 days to go for ______ ?

In other words - who can come here and make all the "we can finish under all of spuds, Everton and poll" assessments be forgotten?

(And plaese, if you mention Isco, don't make it an Isco thread. I know I'm asking much, but you've been behaving thus far...)

SA Gunner (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:21 pm

I think a bit of overreaction from the support at large, much like when we win as well it seems.
The only almost fact at this point in time is that we are gunning for fourth spot this year.

Talk of fourth being miles away or suggestions from the media and so forth is based on nonsensical factors. Our track record shows that despite the odds we have been one of the most consistent top four finishing sides, and before you think I'm being emotional or biased, consider that its this exact type of statistic which keeps United being favourite for the title year on year before a ball is kicked.

We have a game in hand and if we win that we lie 4 points of fourth spot.

Now, lets look at where we are, our rivals and the make up of the games to come.

Rivals: Spurs, Everton, Liverpool.

Key games to play

Spurs: Everton (h), City (h), Arsenal (h)*, Chelsea (a), Liverpool (a), West Ham (a)*.
Everton: City (h), Arsenal (a), Chelsea (a), Liverpool (a)*, United (a), Spurs (a)
Arsenal: Everton (h), Liverpool (h), United (h), Newcastle (a), Spurs (a)*
Liverpool: Chelsea (h), Everton (h)*, Spurs (h), Arsenal (a), City (a), Newcastle (a).

* - derby

Points as of matchday 23

4th Spurs 41
5th Everton 37
6th Arsenal 34*
7th Liverpool 34

* - game in hand


So we can see that there are still difficult trips ahead for most teams, which relates to a fair share of points to be dropped along the way. The difference as of match day 23 is 7 points.

I believe that our experience will once again count here. We wont do ourselves any favours by not reinforcing this month but even so, I dont think our rivals are good enough to pull away from us as we are currently.

If we do strengthen properly though, for me meaning a proper DM and striker, and keep our players fit we will be on for third this year.

Prediction from me is fourth/fifth, ahead/behind of Spurs by a 1-2 point margin. Liverpool 6th with Everton dropping out.

Last edited by SA Gunner on January 21st, 2013, 12:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.

GoonerBoy19 (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:27 pm

A season like this was on the cards since last 2-3 years. We managed to scrape through in previous years due to some individual talent and other teams suffering serious blips in second half of the season.

Wenger never learnt from his mistakes.He repeated the same things again and again thus dug grave for himself. One day he says that the squad is complete and he has players and on other day he says he is concerned if we can make to top-4, how contradicting. :(

dpt49 (Banned) on January 21st, 2013, 12:32 pm

yuvken wrote: about one obvious point: we went for Arshavin back when, we still have 10 days to go for ______ ?

When Arshavin came here we still had Cesc, RVP, Song, Nasri, Adebayor, Clichy etc. so he was bought as well us having some top players.

When a player like that is bought, it is not always what the player does on the pitch that is important. It is the lift it gives the whole club, from the players to the supporters.

So a player like Villa or Cavani would give a massive lift, which we desperately need.
We are stagnant and this transfer window was an opportunity to get an Arshavin type figure to get everyone going.
But I just can't see that happening.

GOONER1991 (Trusted Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:33 pm

yuvken wrote:Credit to all of you, good - and relatively moan free :thumbup - posts so far.

I'm a bit surprised no one talks about one obvious point: we went for Arshavin back when, we still have 10 days to go for ______ ?

In other words - who can come here and make all the "we can finish under all of spuds, Everton and poll" assessments be forgotten?

(And plaese, if you mention Isco, don't make it an Isco thread. I know I'm asking much, but you've been behaving thus far...)


I think the only thing that will get us through now is a pretty substantial striker signing. It doesn't have to be a Cavani, but a player who can come in and excite us. Whether be the experienced David Villa or the younger potential of Jovetic. A £20m striker would be a huge boost to this team and club.

I'm not saying this because of my feelings against Giroud. In footballing terms, we do need a striker with a bit of quality, who can create for themselves, and put away the chances that we make for them, but away from that we need a quality striker to inject some life into the club. To excite the players and the fans. We need something to stop us throwing envious looks over to Manchester and RvP, and the glares at Wenger and Ivan. Something that will make the fans and players think "oh s**t, they're going for this".

yuvken (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:44 pm

dpt49 wrote:We are stagnant and this transfer window was an opportunity to get an Arshavin type figure to get everyone going.
But I just can't see that happening.
It is not over yet... if there's anything clear, it is that we need to sign. And if the past teaches us something, it is that we sign when we have to. Why don't you see it happening?
Personally, even though "it is very hard to find proper talent in January", I'd be very surprised if we don't sign - and I mean sign (not 15.5 Dimitar Yankupolsky, from third division in Latvia)

progman07 (Lobby Member) on January 21st, 2013, 12:49 pm

I think the key thing happened last season, you can read out a lot from history.

I try to dig up my memories:

Spurs were challenging with us for the top 4 and we only had two games left. We played Norwich, and we HAD to win in order to rely only on ourselves.

We drew. 3-3.


What also happened that day is that Spurs drew or lost to Aston Villa.

That tells you so much. Two teams who are such bottlers - anything can happen this year as well. I still cannot understand how the two teams didn't beat Villa and Norwich at such vital games.


What I'm very curious about is whether Wenger thinks it's 2009 all over again, or not. For me it's worse, but you never know with Wenger.
User avatar

tap-in (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:01 pm

Much will depend on what happens in the last 10 days of this window. If we dont buy, we have no chance of 4th. If we do buy what is needed, it will still be difficult but we can still do it. What really annoys me is that we didnt buy properly in the summer, ie a DM, winger and top striker. If we had, this thread wouldn't exist. Now the board?Wenger risk losing 50M for not spending in the summer.

mo50 (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:14 pm

We won't be making CL football, and to be honest my reaction to that is "meh". We'll still sell our best assets, we'll still sign 10m players from the French League, and we'll still defend like crap. Nothing will change, with or without CL money. At least we won't be getting humiliated in Europe next year.

Dokaka (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:17 pm

One has to wonder what the impact on ticket sales will be if you won't be playing CL football.

Liverpool are finally looking like a team on the up again, but it took an ownership change to make that happen, and a massive amount of spending.

The thing is, you could easily be securing 4th if the club/Wenger wasn't so stubborn when it comes to bringing in players.

Just imagine what your squad would've been like if YOU had brought in Dembele, Dempsey, Vertonghen, Scott Parker and so on. All fairly cheap players deemed not good enough (you would assume) by Wenger, but all of them are playing a big part in propelling your biggest rivals above you right as we speak.

What you need to do is sign some players. Literally anyone. Get some new blood into the team. Yes, some will flop, other's will be a revelation I'm sure. Why the hell not bring in M'Vila and Diamé for a combined £13m or so? The club can easily afford that and neither will command huge wages.

Arsenal has been stalling for a long time and you get the feeling that the owners have been trying to pull up for as long as possible. I fear that the only way out of your decline is either new owners, a new manager or some drastic changes to your spending policy.

marv3llous (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:18 pm

Its definately not done and dusted, but i have much less faith in top 4 finish than last year. Because i rate AVB higher than 'Arry and because we have a weaker squad than last year.

Obviously the key will be can we start beating all the "weaker" teams now and put together a big unbeaten run. We dont have many tough games left against the big boys. United, Everton and Liverpool are coming to visit us, our only away game against big clubs is at WHL. We have next 4 out of 5 at home till then, they have 3 out of 4 away. We must keep the gap at around 3-4 points till then ... then we can go there, kick the **** out of them and send em in a tailspin and finish the season with another classic Sp*rs collapse.

leo_ense (Lobby Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:21 pm

If we fail top 4 this season it's on Arsène's head, and he needs to go.
User avatar

yuvken (Elite Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:26 pm

mo50 wrote:We won't be making CL football, and to be honest my reaction to that is "meh". We'll still sell our best assets, we'll still sign 10m players from the French League, and we'll still defend like crap. Nothing will change, with or without CL money. At least we won't be getting humiliated in Europe next year.

Being in the Europa league just is humiliation. If you want, every time we have to appear in that league, each game before the whistle will be another reminder, another humiliation ceremony.

I hope you are wrong in all you wrote above. If you are right, though - particularly regarding the indifference - this will have to result in some drastic consequences, either way. People will not fill a 60k stadium to watch this continue, endorsements will not continue to flow, etc.

evoh_1 (Lobby Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:28 pm

Its all well and good to talk about the big games but arsenal have dropped points in the dead rubber games so often this season and for at least th3 past 4 years that its pointless talking about points out of big games as if AFC will get 3 points out of all the others. Baiscally we need to have a change which:

1) puts us into form for the first time
2) start winning games at home regularly
3) stops the team going to sleep for large periods of games

on top of that we have to beat spurs at **** hart lane to get mythical top four place.

However we are in desperate need of a top striker and an enforcer in midfield though it looks like whatever happens will be after the liverpool match on the 30th. Severe times here and we need an arshavin signing to get us out of the hole and above spurs.

SA Gunner (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:42 pm

leo_ense wrote:If we fail top 4 this season it's on Arsène's head, and he needs to go.


I think we will be worse off, as I feel the real problem is the agenda of the directors of AFC.

Yes Wenger has his faults, on the field of play, but its noises from the top that worry me the most. Id rather stick with a devil I know than those that I dont know.

dpt49 (Banned) on January 21st, 2013, 1:51 pm

Dokaka wrote:
Just imagine what your squad would've been like if YOU had brought in Dembele, Dempsey, Vertonghen, Scott Parker and so on. All fairly cheap players deemed not good enough (you would assume) by Wenger, but all of them are playing a big part in propelling your biggest rivals above you right as we speak.
Exactly.
Proven quality from a top league, rather than unproven players from inferior leagues.
Arsenal has been stalling for a long time and you get the feeling that the owners have been trying to pull up for as long as possible. I fear that the only way out of your decline is either new owners, a new manager or some drastic changes to your spending policy.
These two would be good.

progman07 (Lobby Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:54 pm

yuvken wrote:
mo50 wrote:We won't be making CL football, and to be honest my reaction to that is "meh". We'll still sell our best assets, we'll still sign 10m players from the French League, and we'll still defend like crap. Nothing will change, with or without CL money. At least we won't be getting humiliated in Europe next year.

Being in the Europa league just is humiliation. If you want, every time we have to appear in that league, each game before the whistle will be another reminder, another humiliation ceremony.

I hope you are wrong in all you wrote above. If you are right, though - particularly regarding the indifference - this will have to result in some drastic consequences, either way. People will not fill a 60k stadium to watch this continue, endorsements will not continue to flow, etc.


Wonder what our dear management thinks about THAT.
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marv3llous (Forum Member) on January 21st, 2013, 1:57 pm

Europa League would be a humiliation, especially if Sp*rs are in CL instead of us.

That said im really starting to doubt weather it will make any difference to us. I mean real difference. We are keeping the "powder dry" as it is, which means not buying players. Maybe we will see more run outs for the younger players in there and the main squad can concentrate harder on the PL? Maybe it will force some kind of change in the boardroom or even the coaching staff (Wenger stepping down)?

So it cant/wont send us on an instant tailspin like Liverpool if we have "dry powder" (for 1-2 years). It wont change our ability to attract players, since we aint buying them or are buying Europa League level players anyway. Almost all of our important core players are tied down for the next 2-3-4 years so there wont be any major departures. But it could clear up some muddy waters about our board and manager.
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