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Houssem Aouar

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KrissKringle

Reinventing VAR 😡
Hopefully not, totally different players and we need a creative midfielder above all
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Rex Stone

Long live the fighters
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Country: Wales
Wouldn’t be shocked to see this happen tbh. Kia obviously has some links to Lyon as he moved Guimarães there in January.
 

Trilly

Hates A-M, Saka, Arteta and You
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Country: England
Being able to play on both sides of the pitch at the same level has nothing to do with the level of the player. It's simply about whether they are comfortable on either side.

Players prefer certain sides and drift to certain sides. They require different skill sets. Going on the outside on your dominant foot puts you up against a player on their stronger foot.

Going on the inside like Pepe puts you on your stronger foot while they are on their weaker foot. Shift it quick enough and they can't react, as they are also concentrating on showing you down the line.

Saka is comfortable in the left half space as a left footer. That is invaluable. It means you get the De Bruyne effect. Both of our wide players are inverted. It makes sense to buy a right footer who can drive on the outside.

From what I have seen from Aoaur, is he likes to go left and come back inside so he can see the whole pitch. He likes the left Half space, but so does Auba and Martinelli. And if you buy a forward like Edouard he likes that space to. Saka can go outside that space and get to the byline. I'd like someone to do that on the right side also.

I'm not saying Aoaur isn't good. Just not what I'd want, but maybe Arteta does.
Makes a lot of sense tbh.

Will depend on if Bellerin continues to overlap like he’s shown in recent weeks. When AMN plays RB he tucks in and so we’d need the RCM you’re talking about. If Bellerin continues to attack like he has done then we can create space for Pepe via the RB instead of the RCM. Will be interesting to see what we do.
 

KrissKringle

Reinventing VAR 😡
Nasri was a bigger player than Aouar, and we were signing these types years ago.
Because of the appeal Wenger had with young players.
Some question marks about this guy, but even without that, 1 player isn't gonna carry that team to sudden creative brilliance over a season
We still have Saka and Pepe. It should be better than last season with Willian and those two more comfortable in the team.
 

Trilly

Hates A-M, Saka, Arteta and You
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Genuinely surprised that you tagged me in a transfer thread and didn't say "big **** Raul has done it again hasn't he?" or "think we should lock this up". Anyway...
In the first two matches since the Premier League restart, Mesut Özil has not played a single minute.

Having been left out for the squad against Manchester City, he did travel for the Brighton match — but was not one of Mikel Arteta’s five substitutes. Arteta initially cited “tactical reasons” for excluding Özil but that merely served as a tacit admission he was not carrying an injury.

It’s a significant shift in selection policy for Arteta, who made Özil a cornerstone of his side prior to the enforced break from football. The Athletic understands there has been no great falling-out between player and coach, who enjoy a good relationship. Özil became a father for the first time early in lockdown and consequently, was a little behind other members of the squad in terms of his mental and physical preparation.

Arteta chose to reward the players who’d shown the greatest commitment during the break — but made it clear in speaking to Özil that the door remained open, provided he improved his condition. He could now be in contention for this week’s matches against Southampton and Sheffield United.

Nevertheless, Arteta is surely aware that Özil does not represent the future of this Arsenal team. He will turn 32 later this year, with his contract due to expire the following summer. Even if Arteta turns to him again in his hour of need, he will surely be considering how best to move on from him.

Finding a replacement for Özil is a task that, some would argue, should have been undertaken some time ago. To find a like-for-like replacement for the 2019-20 version of Özil is to look for a player who doesn’t create all that much, rarely scores, and who doesn’t offer much consistently when without the ball either.

Of all the No 10s to have played in a 4-2-3-1 in the Premier League since Arteta’s arrival, just five have played more than 300 minutes. Of those, Özil only edges Norwich’s Ondrej Duda for goals and assists per 90 but his underlying performances have been the worst of the lot.

ozil_att_table.png


The only consistent thread between Özil this season and when he was at his best — the 2015-16 campaign, when he notched 19 assists — is the system he’s largely operated in: the 4-2-3-1. That season, every team in the Premier League bar West Brom employed the formation at least once.

Football is dynamic, ever-evolving and ever-changing, though, and in 2019-20, most teams have moved onto the next formation du jour. Prior to the league shutdown, only Norwich had played with a 4-2-3-1 every game, and even they changed to a 4-4-2 for their recent match against Southampton. In total, only 13 teams have employed the formation at all this season. Under Arteta, Arsenal had used a variation on the 4-2-3-1 in every game, until the match against Brighton in which he deployed a new-look 4-3-3, which replicated some of the patterns of play Arteta’s mentor Pep Guardiola uses at Manchester City. Arguably, the absence of Özil was a key factor in enabling him to make that switch.

It’s too early to say whether this will be a permanent switch but it does suggest Arteta may have decided the best way to replace Özil is to not directly replace him at all.

Instead of looking for a pure No 10, Arteta should identify a player who has the desired attributes but is also comfortable operating as an attack-minded No 8 in a 4-3-3.

There is no perfect Özil replacement out there, so the best way to find a successor is to narrow down the key areas Arteta would want them to contribute in. Ideally, he’d want someone who can be creative, retain possession, press and score.

Identifying someone who can do all of those things equally effectively is close to impossible. It’s when Arsenal pick three from the grid below, leaving one out area, that things become more interesting.

1_ozil_matrix.png


To find some suitable options, we can turn to smarterscout, a site that gives detailed analytics on players all over the world, whose ratings you can think of a bit like the player ratings on FIFA but powered by real data and advanced analytics.

To find a replacement for Özil, we want to have some basic filters in place before getting to the attributes we care about. For a start, we only care about a subset of leagues: those who’ve played at least 600 minutes as a central or attacking midfielder this season and are aged 28 or under.

The leagues in question are the top five in Europe — La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and, of course, the Premier League — alongside the top leagues in Belgium and Holland. There might be some underrated gems in this league that, at some point, will make their way to larger leagues.

Given the leagues, position, age and minutes threshold, we have a longlist of 168 players. Some of the names, such as Dele Alli and Kevin De Bruyne, we can cross off for obvious reasons. Others, such as Watford’s Will Hughes or Newcastle’s Christian Atsu, aren’t quite at the level that Arsenal need, so can be taken off also. In this exercise, we’ve largely set price tags to one side, as it’s difficult to predict how the transfer market will function when it resumes later this summer.

We don’t have a concrete definition of what Arteta is looking for in an attacking midfield player but we can deduce that it involves creating chances and getting the ball into dangerous areas, being comfortable and able to press to win the ball back, not being sloppy in possession, and being able to chip in with the odd goal every once in a while. Using these criteria, we can map each of these desired attributes to the metrics on smarterscout.

The first is ball progression. This is measured based on progressing the ball forward — either through passing the ball yourself, or receiving it in advantageous positions. This is calculated in a similar way to expected goals but for all non-shooting actions.

For example, passing the ball from outside the box into it increases a team’s likelihood of scoring, so the player should receive credit for that. Likewise, recovering a loose ball and restarting an attacking move increases a side’s chances of scoring. Sum up all of the actions that increase a chance of scoring for a team and you have a measure of how what they do with the ball increases the team’s chance of scoring. In the pizza charts below, this is referred to as “xG from ball progression”.

A player’s tendency to press can be measured through how often they look to disrupt opposition attacks through tackling and fouling, which is represented as “disrupting opposition moves” on the pizza chart. Additionally, a player’s tackling ability — how good they are in one-on-one duels — and how often they intercept and recover loose balls are included on the pizza chart, too.

To measure how well a player maintains possession, smarterscout’s ball retention model comes in handy. This model considers how likely a player is to keep possession when attempting a given action on the field (say, with the ball by the corner flag) and compares how often they keep possession in these situations versus the average player. These ratings go from 0 to 99, so those who are great at retaining possession whenever will rate higher and those who are sloppier in possession will be rated lower.

Lastly, goalscoring. We can measure the quality of chances that a player gets themselves into by using expected goals. “xG from shooting” shows a player’s ability to constantly get into good positions. Those rated 99 here, compared to others in their position, get great-quality chances consistently. Those with a zero rating never threaten the opposition goal.

To provide some context, here are a couple of pizza charts that illustrate Özil’s decline. Here he is in 2016-17…

pizza_mesut_ozil_2016-17-1.png


Now let’s look at his form in 2019-20…

pizza_mesut_ozil_2019-20-1.png


Notice the dramatic difference in his creative output — even though other metrics remain largely the same. The fact that Özil has maintained his ball retention skills begs the question of whether it is he or Arsenal who are getting worse. It’s possible that the team’s patterns of play are no longer conducive towards Özil’s creative talents. Regardless, it isn’t working right now. With that in mind, let’s move on to the potential replacements.

The create, retain, press group
matrix_cre_ret_press.png


In some ways this group reflects the younger Özil’s best traits. Never renowned as a goalscorer, under Jose Mourinho at Real Madrid he showed himself to be creatively adept and defensively switched on when required.

The first name produced via smarterscout’s system will be painfully familiar to Arsenal fans — Pascal Gross, who featured in both games as Graham Potter’s men managed a league double over Arsenal. His aggressive pressing style, demonstrated by his 90 ratings for disrupting opposition moves, made it difficult for Arsenal to comfortably play out from the back. He’s also a set-piece expert and his dead-ball delivery would come in handy at any Premier League outfit. On the other hand, he has the lowest ball-carrying rating of any candidate and does not spend enough time in the opposition’s penalty box. What counts against Gross most of all is his age. Having recently turned 29, he is unlikely to be considered.

6acc9b00-afd2-430e-b84d-60dfe75c43f3.jpg


Bayer Leverkusen’s Kerem Demirbay was another name that popped up, with his higher defensive output reflecting the fact he tends is also comfortable operating from a deeper starting position. A former Turkey youth international, he switched allegiance and has won two Germany caps since 2017.

His upright dribbling style is a little reminiscent of former Tottenham midfielder Mousa Dembele. As a left-footer who is expert in helping progress the play, he’s someone who could potentially function as a replacement for Granit Xhaka, rather than Mesut Özil. Having only joined Leverkusen last summer for a fee in the region of £24 million, he might prove difficult to prise away any time soon.

pizza_kerem_demirbay_2019-20-1.png


In terms of age profile, 23-year-old Eintracht Frankfurt midfielder Daichi Kamada is maybe the most intriguing of this group. Arsenal would know the player well, having encountered Frankfurt in the Europa League — a competition in which he’s scored six goals from just seven starts. Although he has yet to replicate that form in the Bundesliga, his technical ability and work rate make him an interesting prospect, and there have already been some predictable comparisons with Kamada’s countryman Shinji Kagawa.

pizza_daichi_kamada_2019-20.png


More so than Demirbay or Gross, Kamada’s chart shows him to be an effective all-rounder — something which could suit Arteta’s desired style.

The retain, press, score group

matrix_ret_press_score.png


What if Arsenal were not so reliant on Özil’s replacement for creativity, but instead opted for a hard-running, hard-shooting ball-carrier?

Wolves’ Diogo Jota has already illustrated his brilliance against Arsenal on several occasions. His xG from shooting rating of 95 shows his ability to find dangerous goalscoring positions. His game is about far more than that, however. A carry and dribble volume of 82 illustrates his capacity to drive his team up the field, and good defensive numbers show he forms a disciplined part of Nuno Espirito Santo’s press.

pizza_diogo_jota_2019-20-1.png


A word of warning: Wolves’ strong financial position and their relatively close position to Arsenal in the Premier League standings could prove impediments to a sale.

Lorenzo Pellegrini of Roma has been linked with Everton, after a positive Serie A campaign in which he played in a more advanced role ahead of Bryan Cristante and Jordan Veretout.

b3f7d4a1-47af-49a3-96d9-913096e92c1a.jpg


While he does not come close to matching Jota’s ratings defensively or in terms of continuity, he does still provide considerable goal threat.

Then there’s Orkun Kokcu, a Turkey Under-21 International making a strong impression at Feyenoord. According to Voetbal International, Feyenoord’s technical director Frank Arnesen is open to selling Kokcu in order to raise the budget for new signings — and Arsenal are said to be one of the clubs on his trail.



pizza_orkun_kokcu_2019-20-1.png


As is to be expected with any player so young, there are gaps in his game. A reception in the box rating of 36 suggests he could be more effective in the final third and he’s certainly no tackler. Nevertheless, he remains a very interesting prospect with considerable technical gifts.

The create, retain, score group

matrix_cre_ret_score.png


If Arteta was willing to reduce the defensive responsibilities on his attacking midfield player, it would open up several other potential targets. These names are somewhat more familiar, starting with Philippe Coutinho.

pizza_philippe_coutinho_2019-20-1.png


The players in this category inevitably tend to contribute less defensively — in that regard, Coutinho is arguably the best of this small selection. Where he really shines is in attack: an xG from ball progression of 94 is outstanding, and his xG from shooting also suggests a player who will get you goals.

The Brazilian could be looking for a new club after his loan with Bayern Munich, and the Arsenal executive team have a close relationship with his representative Kia Joorabchian. The issue, of course, would be meeting Coutinho and Barcelona’s considerable demands.

Meanwhiel, Martin Ødegaard’s form with Real Sociedad has been excellent. Like Coutinho, his attacking numbers are very good. A carry and dribble volume of 90 is also excellent, suggesting that he could play an instrumental role in helping Arsenal progress up the field.

pizza_martin_odegaard_2019-20-1.png


Ødegaard’s spell with Sociedad has been so successful that Madrid have decided to keep him there for another year. It’s highly unlikely they’d consider selling such a promising young midfield player at this stage in his career. If he returns to Madrid and fails to make an impression, perhaps Arsenal would have a chance. For now, this one looks difficult to pull off.

Houssem Aouar has emerged as one of the stars of a Lyon side packed with young talent — so much so that it’s difficult to imagine Arsenal luring him to London, especially without the carrot of Champions League football.

pizza_houssem_aouar_2019-20-1.png


That may not be the worst thing: while the creative dimension of his game is undoubtedly strong, defensively, he has a way to go. His tackling, ball recovery and disrupting opposition moves ratings are all below 15. Aouar is a gifted prodigy but perhaps not the dynamic all-rounder Arteta is looking for.

The create, press, score group
matrix_cre_press_score.png


These players are ones whose strength is more in direct intervention than continuity. If you were asked to guess which Aston Villa midfielder might make this list, you’d probably guess Jack Grealish. You’d be wrong: his team-mate John McGinn actually profiles very well statistically.

pizza_john_mcginn_2019-20-1.png


McGinn’s numbers suggest he excels as a ball-carrier, with a carry and dribble volume of 95. He also rates highly for reception in the opponents’ box and xG from shooting, demonstrating himself to be a significant goalscoring threat. Arsenal have tended to shy away from purchasing Premier League players but with Liverpool demonstrating how effective that strategy can be, perhaps Raul Sanllehi and technical director Edu would consider following suit.

Should Aston Villa be relegated back to the Championship this season, McGinn may be available for a price below his value.

A low link-up rating of 10 would, however, be a cause for concern. McGinn’s touches on the ball are usually when Villa are attacking, which begs the question of whether McGinn can contribute effectively to Arsenal’s build-up play.

In Arsène Wenger’s reign, the Frenchman’s scouts made no secret of their admiration for Russian midfielder Aleksandr Golovin. Arsenal investigated the possibility of signing him from CSKA Moscow before he made the move to Monaco. In Ligue 1, he has continued to blossom, and at 24, is now entering his prime.

pizza_aleksandr_golovin_2019-20-1.png


Golovin’s numbers at Monaco this season paint him to be an excellent attacking threat from midfield. His ratings of 98 for ball progression and 94 for shooting indicate a player capable of both creating and scoring — something Arsenal are crying out for in Özil’s position.

The worry with Golovin will be that his role at Monaco is predicated on him playing in a side that play at a faster tempo to that of Arsenal. His low rating of 20 for link-up play indicates that compared to other midfielders, he’s not seeing many touches when not attacking.

Additionally, his ball retention ability of 32 is also pretty low, and although likely influenced by the nature of Monaco’s style of play, is something that would need work to ensure he’s not consistently leaking possession for Arsenal.

Off the ball, Golovin isn’t a solid tackler — as noted by his low tackling ability — but does put in plenty of work to intercept and block passes, and hoover up ball recoveries.

Finally, there’s Jonathan David — a player already on the radar of Arsenal’s current scouting set-up. Although he is expected to develop into a centre-forward, David has also shown impressive ability as an attacking midfield player. As a young player in the Belgian league, he feels like one of the more attainable names on this list.

pizza_jonathan_david_2019-20-1.png


David’s chart suggests he’s an exceptionally promising young player. A link-up rating of 93 means he’s heavily involved in Gent’s build-up. A rating of 97 for touches in the opposition box shows that he’s equally capable of getting on the end of things.

Defensively, he does not shirk responsibility, either. A tackling ability of 71 is particularly good for a principally attacking player — by way of comparison, McGinn scores just 10 in that category.

These ratings are adjusted for the Premier League, so although David may be playing well in Belgium, there is a tangible difference in quality between the two leagues — something Arsenal would need to consider if they wanted him to contribute to Arteta’s team straight away.
Not so impressive now as he plays a lot safer but to be as progressive with the ball as he used to be while still having sky high ball retention and build up scores just shows how special he used to be.

Only player that comes close is Coutinho.
 
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Oxeki

Match Day Thread Merchant
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Country: Nigeria

Player:Saliba
Didn’t Ivan sign Auba before leaving? Nasri was a bigger player than Aouar, and we were signing these types years ago.
But he gave us Sanogo, Elneny (and renewed him) Mustafi, Özil contract, letting our best players go for Peanuts.

Raul may not be perfect but he gets things done. His Biggest quality is his decisiveness. Ivan was indecisive. During his time here, we were always floundering in the transfer market. Nasri was due to Wenger's influence. He had fück all to do with Baldy
 

berric

Established Member

Player:Trossard
Nasri :facepalm: Came from Marseille as a pound-for-pound replacement for Hleb on the back of one of the best post Emirates seasons when we were still considered as superclub.

Thanks to Ivan's decisions that reputation declined rapidly.
 

GDeep™

League is very weak
Nasri :facepalm: Came from Marseille as a pound-for-pound replacement for Hleb on the back of one of the best post Emirates seasons when we were still considered as superclub.

Thanks to Ivan's decisions that reputation declined rapidly.

We have never been a superclub, and when we signed Nasri it had been years since we won anything major.

Also, the decline started once Stan came in. In not an Ivan fan anyway, i was one of the few people on here who constantly attacked Ivan, while the rest of the idiots on this forum were gunning for Wenger.
 

berric

Established Member

Player:Trossard
We have never been a superclub, and when we signed Nasri it had been years since we won anything major.

Also, the decline started once Stan came in. In not an Ivan fan anyway, i was one of the few people on here who constantly attacked Ivan, while the rest of the idiots on this forum were gunning for Wenger.

The club as a whole had a much greater appeal in 2008, Ivan left a decade latter and the club's in much worse condition reputation-wise.

It's of course a blend of factors but I found it weird how you've mentioned Nasri who came on the back of what Dein and Wenger achieved. The fact club lost it's appeal is due to him much more than Raul (who is no diferrent).

It all stems from Stan that's for sure.
 

Makavelii

Active Member
The club as a whole had a much greater appeal in 2008, Ivan left a decade latter and the club's in much worse condition reputation-wise.

It's of course a blend of factors but I found it weird how you've mentioned Nasri who came on the back of what Dein and Wenger achieved. The fact club lost it's appeal is due to him much more than Raul (who is no diferrent).

It all stems from Stan that's for sure.
I agree Stan is the core of the problem.
 

SingmeasongSong

Right Sometimes
Because of the appeal Wenger had with young players.

We still have Saka and Pepe. It should be better than last season with Willian and those two more comfortable in the team.

We've been relegation level at creating chances - we will improve with Arteta, but it would be unforgivable to take that much risk and not buy at least 2 very creative players.

If we would only buy for on position, it would be creative midfielders.
 

KrissKringle

Reinventing VAR 😡
We've been relegation level at creating chances - we will improve with Arteta, but it would be unforgivable to take that much risk and not buy at least 2 very creative players.

If we would only buy for on position, it would be creative midfielders.
I agree, but considering stingy Stan isn't that keen on spending to give us the reinforcements needed, I'm not holding my breath for 2 creative players in the final third.
I think one creative player and a defensive midfielder/deep lying playmaker is all we're getting.
 

MutableEarth

Reiss' Dad
Trusted ⭐
This guy looks perfect.. Hoping this is true.. Our midfield has been depressing for a while now.
I really liked Caquaret aswell to be fair. He looks very complete already!

Genuinely surprised that you tagged me in a transfer thread and didn't say "big **** Raul has done it again hasn't he?" or "think we should lock this up". Anyway...
In the first two matches since the Premier League restart, Mesut Özil has not played a single minute.

Having been left out for the squad against Manchester City, he did travel for the Brighton match — but was not one of Mikel Arteta’s five substitutes. Arteta initially cited “tactical reasons” for excluding Özil but that merely served as a tacit admission he was not carrying an injury.

It’s a significant shift in selection policy for Arteta, who made Özil a cornerstone of his side prior to the enforced break from football. The Athletic understands there has been no great falling-out between player and coach, who enjoy a good relationship. Özil became a father for the first time early in lockdown and consequently, was a little behind other members of the squad in terms of his mental and physical preparation.

Arteta chose to reward the players who’d shown the greatest commitment during the break — but made it clear in speaking to Özil that the door remained open, provided he improved his condition. He could now be in contention for this week’s matches against Southampton and Sheffield United.

Nevertheless, Arteta is surely aware that Özil does not represent the future of this Arsenal team. He will turn 32 later this year, with his contract due to expire the following summer. Even if Arteta turns to him again in his hour of need, he will surely be considering how best to move on from him.

Finding a replacement for Özil is a task that, some would argue, should have been undertaken some time ago. To find a like-for-like replacement for the 2019-20 version of Özil is to look for a player who doesn’t create all that much, rarely scores, and who doesn’t offer much consistently when without the ball either.

Of all the No 10s to have played in a 4-2-3-1 in the Premier League since Arteta’s arrival, just five have played more than 300 minutes. Of those, Özil only edges Norwich’s Ondrej Duda for goals and assists per 90 but his underlying performances have been the worst of the lot.

ozil_att_table.png


The only consistent thread between Özil this season and when he was at his best — the 2015-16 campaign, when he notched 19 assists — is the system he’s largely operated in: the 4-2-3-1. That season, every team in the Premier League bar West Brom employed the formation at least once.

Football is dynamic, ever-evolving and ever-changing, though, and in 2019-20, most teams have moved onto the next formation du jour. Prior to the league shutdown, only Norwich had played with a 4-2-3-1 every game, and even they changed to a 4-4-2 for their recent match against Southampton. In total, only 13 teams have employed the formation at all this season. Under Arteta, Arsenal had used a variation on the 4-2-3-1 in every game, until the match against Brighton in which he deployed a new-look 4-3-3, which replicated some of the patterns of play Arteta’s mentor Pep Guardiola uses at Manchester City. Arguably, the absence of Özil was a key factor in enabling him to make that switch.

It’s too early to say whether this will be a permanent switch but it does suggest Arteta may have decided the best way to replace Özil is to not directly replace him at all.

Instead of looking for a pure No 10, Arteta should identify a player who has the desired attributes but is also comfortable operating as an attack-minded No 8 in a 4-3-3.

There is no perfect Özil replacement out there, so the best way to find a successor is to narrow down the key areas Arteta would want them to contribute in. Ideally, he’d want someone who can be creative, retain possession, press and score.

Identifying someone who can do all of those things equally effectively is close to impossible. It’s when Arsenal pick three from the grid below, leaving one out area, that things become more interesting.

1_ozil_matrix.png


To find some suitable options, we can turn to smarterscout, a site that gives detailed analytics on players all over the world, whose ratings you can think of a bit like the player ratings on FIFA but powered by real data and advanced analytics.

To find a replacement for Özil, we want to have some basic filters in place before getting to the attributes we care about. For a start, we only care about a subset of leagues: those who’ve played at least 600 minutes as a central or attacking midfielder this season and are aged 28 or under.

The leagues in question are the top five in Europe — La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and, of course, the Premier League — alongside the top leagues in Belgium and Holland. There might be some underrated gems in this league that, at some point, will make their way to larger leagues.

Given the leagues, position, age and minutes threshold, we have a longlist of 168 players. Some of the names, such as Dele Alli and Kevin De Bruyne, we can cross off for obvious reasons. Others, such as Watford’s Will Hughes or Newcastle’s Christian Atsu, aren’t quite at the level that Arsenal need, so can be taken off also. In this exercise, we’ve largely set price tags to one side, as it’s difficult to predict how the transfer market will function when it resumes later this summer.

We don’t have a concrete definition of what Arteta is looking for in an attacking midfield player but we can deduce that it involves creating chances and getting the ball into dangerous areas, being comfortable and able to press to win the ball back, not being sloppy in possession, and being able to chip in with the odd goal every once in a while. Using these criteria, we can map each of these desired attributes to the metrics on smarterscout.

The first is ball progression. This is measured based on progressing the ball forward — either through passing the ball yourself, or receiving it in advantageous positions. This is calculated in a similar way to expected goals but for all non-shooting actions.

For example, passing the ball from outside the box into it increases a team’s likelihood of scoring, so the player should receive credit for that. Likewise, recovering a loose ball and restarting an attacking move increases a side’s chances of scoring. Sum up all of the actions that increase a chance of scoring for a team and you have a measure of how what they do with the ball increases the team’s chance of scoring. In the pizza charts below, this is referred to as “xG from ball progression”.

A player’s tendency to press can be measured through how often they look to disrupt opposition attacks through tackling and fouling, which is represented as “disrupting opposition moves” on the pizza chart. Additionally, a player’s tackling ability — how good they are in one-on-one duels — and how often they intercept and recover loose balls are included on the pizza chart, too.

To measure how well a player maintains possession, smarterscout’s ball retention model comes in handy. This model considers how likely a player is to keep possession when attempting a given action on the field (say, with the ball by the corner flag) and compares how often they keep possession in these situations versus the average player. These ratings go from 0 to 99, so those who are great at retaining possession whenever will rate higher and those who are sloppier in possession will be rated lower.

Lastly, goalscoring. We can measure the quality of chances that a player gets themselves into by using expected goals. “xG from shooting” shows a player’s ability to constantly get into good positions. Those rated 99 here, compared to others in their position, get great-quality chances consistently. Those with a zero rating never threaten the opposition goal.

To provide some context, here are a couple of pizza charts that illustrate Özil’s decline. Here he is in 2016-17…

pizza_mesut_ozil_2016-17-1.png


Now let’s look at his form in 2019-20…

pizza_mesut_ozil_2019-20-1.png


Notice the dramatic difference in his creative output — even though other metrics remain largely the same. The fact that Özil has maintained his ball retention skills begs the question of whether it is he or Arsenal who are getting worse. It’s possible that the team’s patterns of play are no longer conducive towards Özil’s creative talents. Regardless, it isn’t working right now. With that in mind, let’s move on to the potential replacements.

The create, retain, press group
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In some ways this group reflects the younger Özil’s best traits. Never renowned as a goalscorer, under Jose Mourinho at Real Madrid he showed himself to be creatively adept and defensively switched on when required.

The first name produced via smarterscout’s system will be painfully familiar to Arsenal fans — Pascal Gross, who featured in both games as Graham Potter’s men managed a league double over Arsenal. His aggressive pressing style, demonstrated by his 90 ratings for disrupting opposition moves, made it difficult for Arsenal to comfortably play out from the back. He’s also a set-piece expert and his dead-ball delivery would come in handy at any Premier League outfit. On the other hand, he has the lowest ball-carrying rating of any candidate and does not spend enough time in the opposition’s penalty box. What counts against Gross most of all is his age. Having recently turned 29, he is unlikely to be considered.

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Bayer Leverkusen’s Kerem Demirbay was another name that popped up, with his higher defensive output reflecting the fact he tends is also comfortable operating from a deeper starting position. A former Turkey youth international, he switched allegiance and has won two Germany caps since 2017.

His upright dribbling style is a little reminiscent of former Tottenham midfielder Mousa Dembele. As a left-footer who is expert in helping progress the play, he’s someone who could potentially function as a replacement for Granit Xhaka, rather than Mesut Özil. Having only joined Leverkusen last summer for a fee in the region of £24 million, he might prove difficult to prise away any time soon.

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In terms of age profile, 23-year-old Eintracht Frankfurt midfielder Daichi Kamada is maybe the most intriguing of this group. Arsenal would know the player well, having encountered Frankfurt in the Europa League — a competition in which he’s scored six goals from just seven starts. Although he has yet to replicate that form in the Bundesliga, his technical ability and work rate make him an interesting prospect, and there have already been some predictable comparisons with Kamada’s countryman Shinji Kagawa.

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More so than Demirbay or Gross, Kamada’s chart shows him to be an effective all-rounder — something which could suit Arteta’s desired style.

The retain, press, score group

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What if Arsenal were not so reliant on Özil’s replacement for creativity, but instead opted for a hard-running, hard-shooting ball-carrier?

Wolves’ Diogo Jota has already illustrated his brilliance against Arsenal on several occasions. His xG from shooting rating of 95 shows his ability to find dangerous goalscoring positions. His game is about far more than that, however. A carry and dribble volume of 82 illustrates his capacity to drive his team up the field, and good defensive numbers show he forms a disciplined part of Nuno Espirito Santo’s press.

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A word of warning: Wolves’ strong financial position and their relatively close position to Arsenal in the Premier League standings could prove impediments to a sale.

Lorenzo Pellegrini of Roma has been linked with Everton, after a positive Serie A campaign in which he played in a more advanced role ahead of Bryan Cristante and Jordan Veretout.

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While he does not come close to matching Jota’s ratings defensively or in terms of continuity, he does still provide considerable goal threat.

Then there’s Orkun Kokcu, a Turkey Under-21 International making a strong impression at Feyenoord. According to Voetbal International, Feyenoord’s technical director Frank Arnesen is open to selling Kokcu in order to raise the budget for new signings — and Arsenal are said to be one of the clubs on his trail.



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As is to be expected with any player so young, there are gaps in his game. A reception in the box rating of 36 suggests he could be more effective in the final third and he’s certainly no tackler. Nevertheless, he remains a very interesting prospect with considerable technical gifts.

The create, retain, score group

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If Arteta was willing to reduce the defensive responsibilities on his attacking midfield player, it would open up several other potential targets. These names are somewhat more familiar, starting with Philippe Coutinho.

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The players in this category inevitably tend to contribute less defensively — in that regard, Coutinho is arguably the best of this small selection. Where he really shines is in attack: an xG from ball progression of 94 is outstanding, and his xG from shooting also suggests a player who will get you goals.

The Brazilian could be looking for a new club after his loan with Bayern Munich, and the Arsenal executive team have a close relationship with his representative Kia Joorabchian. The issue, of course, would be meeting Coutinho and Barcelona’s considerable demands.

Meanwhiel, Martin Ødegaard’s form with Real Sociedad has been excellent. Like Coutinho, his attacking numbers are very good. A carry and dribble volume of 90 is also excellent, suggesting that he could play an instrumental role in helping Arsenal progress up the field.

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Ødegaard’s spell with Sociedad has been so successful that Madrid have decided to keep him there for another year. It’s highly unlikely they’d consider selling such a promising young midfield player at this stage in his career. If he returns to Madrid and fails to make an impression, perhaps Arsenal would have a chance. For now, this one looks difficult to pull off.

Houssem Aouar has emerged as one of the stars of a Lyon side packed with young talent — so much so that it’s difficult to imagine Arsenal luring him to London, especially without the carrot of Champions League football.

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That may not be the worst thing: while the creative dimension of his game is undoubtedly strong, defensively, he has a way to go. His tackling, ball recovery and disrupting opposition moves ratings are all below 15. Aouar is a gifted prodigy but perhaps not the dynamic all-rounder Arteta is looking for.

The create, press, score group
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These players are ones whose strength is more in direct intervention than continuity. If you were asked to guess which Aston Villa midfielder might make this list, you’d probably guess Jack Grealish. You’d be wrong: his team-mate John McGinn actually profiles very well statistically.

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McGinn’s numbers suggest he excels as a ball-carrier, with a carry and dribble volume of 95. He also rates highly for reception in the opponents’ box and xG from shooting, demonstrating himself to be a significant goalscoring threat. Arsenal have tended to shy away from purchasing Premier League players but with Liverpool demonstrating how effective that strategy can be, perhaps Raul Sanllehi and technical director Edu would consider following suit.

Should Aston Villa be relegated back to the Championship this season, McGinn may be available for a price below his value.

A low link-up rating of 10 would, however, be a cause for concern. McGinn’s touches on the ball are usually when Villa are attacking, which begs the question of whether McGinn can contribute effectively to Arsenal’s build-up play.

In Arsène Wenger’s reign, the Frenchman’s scouts made no secret of their admiration for Russian midfielder Aleksandr Golovin. Arsenal investigated the possibility of signing him from CSKA Moscow before he made the move to Monaco. In Ligue 1, he has continued to blossom, and at 24, is now entering his prime.

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Golovin’s numbers at Monaco this season paint him to be an excellent attacking threat from midfield. His ratings of 98 for ball progression and 94 for shooting indicate a player capable of both creating and scoring — something Arsenal are crying out for in Özil’s position.

The worry with Golovin will be that his role at Monaco is predicated on him playing in a side that play at a faster tempo to that of Arsenal. His low rating of 20 for link-up play indicates that compared to other midfielders, he’s not seeing many touches when not attacking.

Additionally, his ball retention ability of 32 is also pretty low, and although likely influenced by the nature of Monaco’s style of play, is something that would need work to ensure he’s not consistently leaking possession for Arsenal.

Off the ball, Golovin isn’t a solid tackler — as noted by his low tackling ability — but does put in plenty of work to intercept and block passes, and hoover up ball recoveries.

Finally, there’s Jonathan David — a player already on the radar of Arsenal’s current scouting set-up. Although he is expected to develop into a centre-forward, David has also shown impressive ability as an attacking midfield player. As a young player in the Belgian league, he feels like one of the more attainable names on this list.

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David’s chart suggests he’s an exceptionally promising young player. A link-up rating of 93 means he’s heavily involved in Gent’s build-up. A rating of 97 for touches in the opposition box shows that he’s equally capable of getting on the end of things.

Defensively, he does not shirk responsibility, either. A tackling ability of 71 is particularly good for a principally attacking player — by way of comparison, McGinn scores just 10 in that category.

These ratings are adjusted for the Premier League, so although David may be playing well in Belgium, there is a tangible difference in quality between the two leagues — something Arsenal would need to consider if they wanted him to contribute to Arteta’s team straight away.
Interesting - RE Aouar, all I hear from my Ligue-1 watching peers is that he only turns it on in the CL when it comes to defending/pressing but doesn't bother much in the league. Make of that what you will.
 

Jasard

Forum Issue Troubleshooter
Moderator

Country: England
Got to be hard to bother trying in the French leagues to be honest
 

Rex Stone

Long live the fighters
Trusted ⭐

Country: Wales
I really liked Caquaret aswell to be fair. He looks very complete already!


Interesting - RE Aouar, all I hear from my Ligue-1 watching peers is that he only turns it on in the CL when it comes to defending/pressing but doesn't bother much in the league. Make of that what you will.

I was fuming with Kia last night for not getting us Guimarães. He looked quality as well.
 

Dutch D

Well-Known Member & FPL Champion 19/20
I really liked Caquaret aswell to be fair. He looks very complete already!


Interesting - RE Aouar, all I hear from my Ligue-1 watching peers is that he only turns it on in the CL when it comes to defending/pressing but doesn't bother much in the league. Make of that what you will.
That Athletic piece with those stats graphs about potential Özil replacements included Aouar. It surprised me how poor his defensive contribution has been this season. Really non-existent in the stats. I've only ever seen him in the CL though and he seemed to contribute quite a bit.
 
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