Premier League 2019/20: The race for Europe

[Dutch D]

Sp**s draw against Leicester and win against Palace takes them to 59 points.

Our two games will be tough, Villa and Watford will die for every ball.

They have a better goal difference, so we would have to score 4 more goals then them in that scenario. Going to be tough.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

Think Sheffield Utd will draw one and win one winding up on 58 points.

Also think Sp**s will draw one and win one winding up on 59 points.

Wolves I think will win against Palace but lose against Chelsea and end up on 59 points.

Basically if we win both our games we'll get 6th or 7th depending on GD. But we should overtake Wolves GD with two wins.

 

[field442]

So now we know roughly what’s required. Six points and +5 GD between us and Wolves means we’ll need to win our next two games by a combined 4 goal margin and hope Chelsea beat Wolves. Wolves have only lost by more than 1 goal twice this season. Once to us and once against Chelsea, so it’s fair to assume that if they do lose it won’t be by a lot.

 

[DanDare]

Not happening

Luckily we're winning the FA Cup

 

[tcahill]

I think we're in a decent position to get 6th/7th.
Assuming that we win our last two games;

Everton have done us a massive favour by beating Sheffield, we'll overtake them.

Sp**s look like favourites for 6th, true they have to go to Palace away which isn't easy but they should be getting the points.

Wolves have to lose to Chelsea, which looks likely but not guaranteed. As others pointed out, we'll need to make up a -4 goal difference too.

 

[The_Playmaker]

I think we're in a decent position to get 6th/7th.
Assuming that we win our last two games;

Everton have done us a massive favour by beating Sheffield, we'll overtake them.

Sp**s look like favourites for 6th, true they have to go to Palace away which isn't easy but they should be getting the points.

Wolves have to lose to Chelsea, which looks likely but not guaranteed. As others pointed out, we'll need to make up a -4 goal difference too.

Chelsea need to beat Wolves to get Champions League, we need to win our last two games and score goals in the process as the max we can get is 59 and Wolves will end up on 59. If chelsea win by goal at the least we will have to match a goal difference total of 4 in our next two games.
If we end up on the same as wolves we would finish above them based on scoring more.

So basically win our next two games with a total goal difference of 4 when you combine the results and we have a strong chance of getting 7th.

 

[The_Playmaker]

I'd also add that we really need to secure Europe before the final. This team do not do well under too much pressure, take Baku as an example.

It could have a knock on effect. The only thing stopping Auba from signing is Europe.

Europe= Money which leads to spend which makes the team stronger. It is also an additional pathway to the champions league, and you would expect us to reach the semis with investment next season.

Imagine we secure Europe, auba signs before the final, no pressure of qualifying. The feeling in the team will be so determined and positive to finish the season on a high, rather than fighting to prevent the season ending on a low. That extra bit of tension could hamper the wrong players.

 

[dashsnow17]

Sp*rs have Palace, so you've got to assume they'll finish on 61 points and finish 6th. So we'd need Wolves to lose to Chelsea, preferably by a good few goals, and we pick up 6 points from Villa and Watford, preferably with a big victory in one of them.

And if all that happens we'd finish on 59 points and in 7th. Which means if we didn't win the FA Cup we'd go into the qualifying rounds of the Europa League?

 

[Sanis]

Those lost points against Leicester and Sp**s look so costly now..

 

[roz]

Those lost points against Leicester and Sp**s look so costly now..

The numerous ref/var decisions will be more costly. Palace springs to mind.

gotta feel for Sheffield utd also. Imagine them missing out on Europe after not being given that goal v Villa

 

[GunnerShy]

The numerous ref/var decisions will be more costly. Palace springs to mind.

gotta feel for Sheffield utd also. Imagine them missing out on Europe after not being given that goal v Villa

I don't feel for Sheffield UTD at all. Feel like they got the rub of the green when they got the result against us up there.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

Those lost points against Leicester and Sp**s look so costly now..

Considering the fixtures I thought we would draw and lose one of the remaining games. One of them coming against wolves and the other against Sp**s or Liverpool.

I think we have done remarkably well since the brighton shambles.

 

[Macho]

^ its mostly Brighton that I rue myself.

We've had bad decisions that cost us a lot of points of course but we just simply wasn't good enough for most of the season.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

^ its mostly Brighton that I rue myself.

We've had bad decisions that cost us a lot of points of course but we just simply wasn't good enough for most of the season.

There's so many games you can look back on tbf.

Drawing 2-2 at Watford conceding the 81st minute penalty.
Drawing 2-2 at home to Palace after scoring two early goals.
Drawing 2-2 at home to Southampton although we salvaged a point there.
Drawing 2-2 away to bloody Norwich.
The 2-1 loss at home to Brighton with Maupay scoring the winner again.
The 2-1 loss at home to Chelsea, that one actually made me so angry because we should have won.
Drawing 1-1 at home to Sheff Utd after being in the lead, another 80th+ minute goal conceded.
And then obviously the 2-1 loss against Brighton AGAIN.
Throw the 1-1 against Leicester into that as well.

There was a run where we drew 4 games in a row which killed us.

We were poor for swathes of the season, but theres so many games above that we should've won. Looking towards the Palace home game, Sheff Utd home game and both Brighton games. Honestly shocking.

You'd like to think with a couple of solid defensive additions we can turn the draws and some of the losses into wins.

Saying that we also lacked creativity in most of these games which meant we couldn't win by a small margin despite conceding a lot.

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

Sadly again we putting pressure on ourselves by beating Chelsea to be in europa league just like last season.

Well in ny opinion when you finish 10-8 you don't deserve to be in europa but when you have the chance you should taking it.

 

[boonthegoon]

Time to lock this

 

[Tosker]

Sadly again we putting pressure on ourselves by beating Chelsea to be in europa league just like last season.

Well in ny opinion when you finish 10-8 you don't deserve to be in europa but when you have the chance you should taking it.

and it's possible we would be getting into Europe at Sp**s expense - and wouldn't that be sweet

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

and it's possible we would be getting into Europe at Sp**s expense - and wouldn't that be sweet

Think Sp**s are finishing 6th they definitely getting result at palace and Chelsea will need CL football they need to beat wolves

 

[Manberg]

Is the following reliable? Suggests we’d be third without referee errors.

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

Is the following reliable? Suggests we’d be third without referee errors.

Yes that's true but still not as bad as dropping 21 points from winning positions