Alexis Sanchez (Out)

[celestis]

PSG are more keen to strengthen our midfield than Wenger is.

 

[celestis]

When is Lexi expected back in Arsenal training?

This week I thought.

 

[Highbury_2006]

Then why didn't he buy us ffs.

Mr Walrus refused to sell.

 

[razörist]

This week I thought.

Hmmm. Exciting.

 

[Garrincha]

Hard to turn down Lucas with our post Alexis wide options.

A double figure goal/assist machine.

Contract up in 2019 & exchange deals must be easier with less time on the contract.

 

[Bergkamp120]

PSG loathe Lucas. According them, he's barely developed since they signed him.

I would much rather have one of Rabiot/Kimpembe/Guedes.

 

[GeorgiaGunner]

The Prime lending rate is 1.25% in England. But lets take your rate - 5%, that puts 2.5m as the value at risk. A club valued at 1.2bn isn't going to make decisions based on 2.5m.
Your entire point was garbage btw, the tvm was just the most obvious thing wrong. Even with Sanchez I'd say City, Chelsea have way better squads than us and Liverpool, Sp**s and Utd are near our level. So retaining Sanchez doesn't translate to 50% improved chances of making the top four, but something closer to 100%.

Again, Arsenal doesn't receive the prime rate on investments (though it's definitely more correct than the .25% you originally quoted). The prime rate helps determine the operative #, but it's not by itself relevant to the club unless the club is generating less than 1.25% ROI per annum -- not sure how many times I have to explain this. Google CAPM, WACC, etc.


And as for your estimation of our CL chances, that's totally specious reasoning -- we wouldn't have a 0% chance without him, and, as this season proved, we sure as hell don't have a 100% chance (of making that last spot) with him. The exact % is conjecture, of course, but the only number it's very obviously not is 100%.

If any post is "garbage," it's yours -- I'd suggest staying in your lane, as you have literally no clue what you're talking about.

 

[Garrincha]

PSG loathe Lucas. According them, he's barely developed since they signed him.

Let them experience the likes of Walcott, Perez, Ox, Welbeck etc.

 

[Steps]

http://www.givemesport.com/1107078-...r-what-he-told-paris-saintgermain?autoplay=on

the word CONFIDENT should be banned in this forum !

Good. Let all these clubs talk to him. Get real cozy.

Then I want to see the board report them to FIFA for tapping up. Doubt anything would come of it but might throw some water in their faces.


Also, that article is terrible, but always fun seeing what comes out on the web these days.

 

[samshere]

Rabiot + 20m would be ideal for both parties involved. Think we'd prefer to have cash instead of Lucas/Matuidi which we can then spend on Mahrez/CM.

Again, Arsenal doesn't receive the prime rate on investments, nor can it borrow at that rate (as it is not a bank seeking secured overnight lending). The prime rate helps determine the operative #, but it's not by itself relevant to the club -- not sure how many times I have to explain this. Google CAPM, WACC, etc.


And as for your estimation of our CL chances, that's totally specious reasoning -- we wouldn't have a 0% chance without him, and, as this season proved, we sure as hell don't have a 100% chance (of making that last spot) with him. The exact % is conjecture, of course, but the only number it's very obviously not is 100%.

If any post is "garbage," it's yours -- I'd suggest staying in your lane, as you have literally no clue what you're talking about.

I did explain why even a rate of 5% would still make the tvm irrelevant. Arsenal aren't an investment bank, you can't quantify investments made in the academy to have a rate of return, at least not in monetary terms. And if you're trying to go so very minutely into the monetary aspects, you have to calculate the loss of goodwill due to selling a prime asset. There are several arguments for selling Sanchez, but tvm might very well be the least logical. You seem to be stuck in CAPM , WACC, beta, IRR and displaying some need of applying these concepts to a player decision
And if the entire thing is conjecture there's no need to assign it a mathematical figure and then try to derive some conclusion from it. Statistics isn't as simple as assigning some arbitrary value to an event and then multiplying it with the transfer fee(which will again be just a guess). Going the mathematical route doesn't work in this case, and in any case you've done such a poor job of it that a unlettered plumber would be able to punch holes in it.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Empirical fact, actually.

Champions League is worth ~5oMM per year to us (if we exit around R16 per usual) -- A 50 percentage point (that is, say, from 25% to 75%) increase in likelihood of qualification is thus 'only' worth ~25MM, and there's no way Alexis represents that large a bump on his own, anyways. The difference between 6th and 1st place EPL money is only 10MM, so his economic effect there is negligible.

Furthermore, given the time value of money (A dollar now is worth more than a dollar later -- with salary due on average in 6 months, transfer fee [would be] received this year as well, CL money not for another 12 months), there's basically no way he could bridge the gap on his own. He would have to, with 100% certainty, take us from Champions League longshots (which we're not), to QF at minimum, and from 6/7 place (which we may be) to league champs.

Not saying it's best for the club in the long term, or that I'd like him to be sold, but the sell-now math definitely adds up.

No, the "sell now math" doesn't add up at all. I'll just copy and paste what I wrote the other day:

It's way more than just missing out on the Champions League. You're thinking too narrowly here. First of all, it's not just about missing out on the Champions League once. If, without Alexis, Arsenal misses out a second time (at an estimated £40 million each time), there's your £80 million (edit: this represents the figure the poster I was responding to the other day said they should sell Alexis for).

But what if Arsenal then has trouble attracting top players and misses out a third time? Or a fourth? The longer you're out, the more trouble you're going to have attracting top players. And, as Manchester United has been finding out, you're going to pay a pretty premium to get any of your targets. Not only are other clubs going to hold you hostage, but you're going to have to pay inflated salaries. There are a ton of hidden costs here.

Plus you have to consider sponsorship deals. The Puma contract ends in 2019 and the terms of a new contract are going to be negotiated largely based on Arsenal's Champions League status (next summer). Plus it's going to mean a smaller split of the TV money. Arsenal will get less for finishing lower and will likely have fewer TV games in the coming years as long as they stay out of the top four. It could affect gate receipts as well.

That's why it's absolutely vital, not only in footballing terms but in financial terms, to get back in the top four this season and hopefully challenge for the title. And Alexis gives the club a better chance of doing that than any player they might reasonably expect to acquire to replace him. Whatever transfer fee they might be offered -- even if it's £100 million -- is small potatoes compared to what they stand to lose from another season finishing outside the top four.

 

[Carlo Marx]

Google translate says:
... [T]here is now very little chance for the 28-year-old Chilean to settle in Paris this summer. Firstly because the representatives of the Arsenal striker were particularly fastidious and greedy when entering into the details of the contract. Secondly, because Arsenal ... have swept away the different approaches of the PSG representatives. Several solutions were considered, such as the inclusion of Parisian players in the transaction. But Arsène Wenger does not want to hear.

... While the club must find the resources to lift Neymar's €222 million clause, it is not really wise to jointly commit to an operation of nearly €40 million, to which of course should be added a very substantial salary.

For all these reasons, the file Sanchez has cooled strongly this weekend. If it is not yet completely buried, it is not at all a priority.

 

[Enz__]

http://www.leparisien.fr/sports/foo...ris-23-07-2017-7152102.php#xtor=AD-1481423553

Google translation:

While the transfer of the Arsenal striker to Paris seemed to be on the verge of completion, the record is now frozen.

In the shadow of Operation Neymar, the file Alexis Sanchez had made good progress in recent days. On the side of the PSG, some were quite optimistic about the conclusion of this transfer. The club and the player had reached an agreement on the main lines of the contract: the remuneration, the duration (four years) and the various bonuses.
However, there is now very little chance for the 28-year-old Chilean to settle in Paris this summer. Firstly because the representatives of the Arsenal striker were particularly fastidious and greedy when entering into the details of the contract. Secondly, because Arsenal is on its side and has swept away the different approaches of the PSG representatives. Several solutions were considered, such as the inclusion of Parisian players in the transaction.

Operation Neymar ffs

I think the rumour about offering Matuidi/Lucas probably came from this piece but they don't mention names just that a player transaction was/is being considered.

 

[Hunta]

Wenger won't even listen to offers from PSG but Brian from Sale over on bluemoon thinks they're gonna sign him.

 

[GeorgiaGunner]

Rabiot + 20m would be ideal for both parties involved. Think we'd prefer to have cash instead of Lucas/Matuidi which we can then spend on Mahrez/CM.


I did explain why even a rate of 5% would still make the tvm irrelevant. Arsenal aren't an investment bank, you can't quantify investments made in the academy to have a rate of return, at least not in monetary terms. And if you're trying to go so very minutely into the monetary aspects, you have to calculate the loss of goodwill due to selling a prime asset. There are several arguments for selling Sanchez, but tvm might very well be the least logical. You seem to be stuck in CAPM , WACC, beta, IRR and displaying some need of applying these concepts to a player decision
And if the entire thing is conjecture there's no need to assign it a mathematical figure and then try to derive some conclusion from it. Statistics isn't as simple as assigning some arbitrary value to an event and then multiplying it with the transfer fee(which will again be just a guess). Going the mathematical route doesn't work in this case, and in any case you've done such a poor job of it that a unlettered plumber would be able to punch holes in it.

I'm quantifying investments based on Arsenal going out in the market and attempting to generate a return -- not once have I attempted to ascribe a value to academy investments.

5% (which is probably pretty close to the correct rate) is only 'irrelevant' in your calculus due to your ludicrous assumption that CL chances jump from 0% with to 100% without (5oMM bump, 1 year in the future). Pretty funny that you make that leap and come back and tell me "Statistics isn't as simple as assigning some arbitrary value to an event" or getting on my case about improper application.

 

[Tir Na Nog]

Why's Alexis demanding so much anyways, if PSG's not going to match his demands then no one will.

 

[Steps]

Why's Alexis demanding so much anyways, if PSG's not going to match his demands then no one will.

Fancies himself the GOAT, seems like.

 

[Hunta]

 

[Plutarch]

If Wenger isn't going to sell Sanchez to PSG - which I thought he might - then he clearly isn't going to sell him to Man City in any circumstances. It seems to me now the most likely thing is that we really do intend to keep him, no matter what. Although we fans do talk cynically about the board, it's possible that Wenger's already discussed and agreed this with Kroenke, and is therefore under no pressure.

 

[A_G]

I thought $anchez only cared about winning the CL? Shocker.