Arteta and Edu Transfer Targets: Summer 2020

[Rex Stone]

Utd are a different case where they can just continue to drop 250M every transfer window until things improve which eventually they will.

We can’t do that and never will be able to, if you can’t compete financially then you have to work on optimising your processes within your budgets.

Unfortunately that means buying players to then sell on and maximising your academy.

You need to beef up scouting at youth group and in markets that are traditionally overlooked like Eastern Europe or South America.

Ajax and Bilbao are two teams that have gigantic networks of scouts locally to find as many players as possible, it’s hard to do that in London where there’s dozens of teams but are we doing it right now?

 

[MutableEarth]

That's kind of what I'm saying, although I wouldn't go as far as saying it's all down to Klopp. He was the catalyst and probably the biggest part of their rise since the new owners took over, but you also have to give credit to them. After Dalglish they got Rodgers and then Klopp, clearly focusing on a certain brand of football. They trusted Klopp, too.

A good while back I laid out every backroom staff change since before Klopp took over. They re-organized and changed up almost all positions. Something that e.g. never happened at Arsenal. You got to give credit to their DoF, too. They're just a very well run club overall, and to some degree that's why they got Klopp. It definitely helps he knows what he wants, but there are people who can make that happen for him, too. And their rise, especially the phases under Klopp, was very kind of organical. They couldn't and didn't immediately splash big money, they built a neat core of good players Klopp could rely on, then stacked that with top players for continuously bigger sums.

Yeah, Klopp deserves a lot of plaudits but Michael Edwards in particular did a lot of fantastic work. We need to see how Edu helps Arteta shape the squad going forward, and Cagigao will also be of central importance.

Our reshuffled backroom hasn't really had as much time to settle and we've already set about cancelling half of them anyway. The hyperbolic reactions to Raul Sanllehi (both good and bad) tell it's own story. To add to the point about Liverpool splashing money, they sold their biggest stars to do that - something we're bad at doing. We never look at selling for maximum value, rather we have a scarcity mindset (have done since RVP IMO) and try to hold onto them for too long in spite of the growing malaise in the team around said star, then they end up leaving with 1 year left for much less than we could have got had we operated with a bit more smarts.

Liverpool didn't go out of their way to sell their stars but they all had a price and it allowed them to build the rest of the team to cope. This is how we need to think in terms of squad building - the identity of the team, profiles of collective/s and individual players, strengths and weaknesses etc. That's something well within our remit but we have to see how good we are at recruiting. I believe in Arteta and I'm content with his work - particularly happy that he is using Hale End talent aswell, this bodes well for the future. Now all 3 of Edu, Arteta and Cagigao will need to recruit smartly and it won't necessarily be big money signings either (won't necessarily be free dross like Fraser either IMO). They'll have to be educated risk signings. Players who fit a profile rather than a name.

 

[OnlyOne]

Just another example is Saka, you sign him now to a good contract and he goes and has 1/2 more very very good seasons, he's suddenly a 60M+ player, same with ESR and same with Martinelli.

It's exactly what we've been terrible at past 10 years.

 

[MutableEarth]

You need to beef up scouting at youth group and in markets that are traditionally overlooked like Eastern Europe or South America.

Ajax and Bilbao are two teams that have gigantic networks of scouts locally to find as many players as possible, it’s hard to do that in London where there’s dozens of teams but are we doing it right now?

The word is that Edu is keen on taking advantage of South American markets - particularly the Brazilian market. We've also been scouting regularly in Eastern Europe although we haven't necessarily yielded much regular results. The most recent recruit we've gotten from there is Romanian attacking midfielder Catalin Cirjan - who looks very promising in fairness.

It's tough to do in London but our scouting has gotten a bit better over time. Before that, Chelsea dominated the market in London, they had the right coaching and scouting early on. We were not far behind in recruiting but our coaching left a lot to be desired until recently.

 

[Sanchez11]

That’s the way it probably always will be. I think people expect us to be competing for the same players as these European giants when it’s just unrealistic.

In my eyes there’s a sort of pyramid to European football.

Tier 1 - Real Madrid, Barcelona
Tier 2 - Man Utd, Liverpool, Bayern, Juventus, AC Milan, Inter Milan
Tier 3 - Atletico, Arsenal, Dortmund, Ajax, Porto, Benfica, Roma, Lazio, Napoli, Valencia

Tier 1 for clubs where not winning the CL every season is a failure.

Tier 2 for clubs that are traditionally the biggest in their own countries and should be regularly competing at high levels in Europe but are still feeders for the first tier.

Tier 3 for clubs that if there’s great management, ownership and a generational crop of players can compete at the top level but it’s usually in very short windows of maybe only a season.

It seems like an arbitrary system but realising our place in the football eco system should be important when planning the future.

I agree we were in between tier 2 and 3 up until 2006 then floated into tier 3. Our history is in England and not in Europe. We are still a bigger club than City, Chelsea and spuds.

 

[truth_hurts]

That's kind of what I'm saying, although I wouldn't go as far as saying it's all down to Klopp. He was the catalyst and probably the biggest part of their rise since the new owners took over, but you also have to give credit to them. After Dalglish they got Rodgers and then Klopp, clearly focusing on a certain brand of football. They trusted Klopp, too.

A good while back I laid out every backroom staff change since before Klopp took over. They re-organized and changed up almost all positions. Something that e.g. never happened at Arsenal. You got to give credit to their DoF, too. They're just a very well run club overall, and to some degree that's why they got Klopp. It definitely helps he knows what he wants, but there are people who can make that happen for him, too. And their rise, especially the phases under Klopp, was very kind of organical. They couldn't and didn't immediately splash big money, they built a neat core of good players Klopp could rely on, then stacked that with top players for continuously bigger sums.



That's kind of the approach I get from @truth_hurts . Add big names and stars and you'll be on your way back to the top. But as you rightly say and everyone has seen with that United example, that's not neccesarilly how it works.

Not really as United had 4 managerial changes and spent silly money. I don't expect us to spent 500m on Lukaku, Sanchez, Bisaka, Maguire, Pogba, Fernandez and Fred.

We don't need to. A 40m cb and Partey would put us ahead of united in my opinion and back in the Champions League mix.

 

[Toby]

We never look at selling for maximum value, rather we have a scarcity mindset (have done since RVP IMO) and try to hold onto them for too long in spite of the growing malaise in the team around said star, then they end up leaving with 1 year left for much less than we could have got had we operated with a bit more smarts.

Selling Alexis in the summer of 2017 to City for 60 to 70m when they wanted him and not focusing on Lemar to replace him would've helped the team much more. But yep, going into the summer window saying "he hasn't renewed so he is definitely for sale for a certain amount" would've opened up a lot more options, including keeping him in the end. Remember, that summer Bernardo Silva, Mo Salah, Kingsley Coman, etc. were on the move for reasonable fees. E.g. you are willing to sell, sell if a fitting offers comes in and be proactive, and bring in some combination of Coman/Salah, Skriniar/Matuidi/Tielemans, you're way better off in the long run.

But as you rightly call it, this scarcity mindset backed Arsenal into the corner of desperatly clinging to Alexis, then when he was fairly on his way of forcing a move at the end of the window it only left few/one option to replace him with (Lemar), which fell through which in turn backed the club into the corner of actually needing to keep Sanchez, and then when he finally left the following winter window it backed the club into the swap deal with Mkhi and then Mislintat having to add desperatly needed goals so he had to opportunistically go for Aubameyang - the only sort of goal guarantee on the market at the time, but from an age/profile perspective not the best solution.

 

[Rex Stone]

Selling Alexis in the summer of 2017 to City for 6 to 70m when they wanted him and not focusing on Lemar to replace him would've helped the team much more. But yep, instead of going into the summer window saying "he hasn't renewed so he is definitely for sale for a certain amount" would've opened up a lot more options, including keeping him in the end. Remember, that summer Bernardo Silva, Mo Salah, Kingsley Coman, etc. were on the move for reasonable fees. E.g. you are willing to sell, sell if a fitting offers comes in and be proactive, and bring in some combination of Coman/Salah, Skriniar/Matuidi/Tielemans, you're way better off in the long run.

But as you rightly call it, this scarcity mindset backed Arsenal into the corner of desperatly clinging to Alexis, then when he was fairly on his way of forcing a move at the end of the window it only left few/one option to replace him with (Lemar), which fell through which in turn backed the club into the corner of actually needing to keep Sanchez, and then when he finally left the following winter window it backed the club into the swap deal with Mkhi and then Mislintat having to add desperatly needed goals so he had to opportunistically go for Aubameyang - the only sort of goal guarantee on the market at the time, but from an age/profile perspective not the best solution.

For clubs like us players have to become assets where you have to ignore public perception and sell at their optimal times.

Gazidis panicked about optics and messed up in both the Özil and Alexis deals. We’re still paying for those two deals in 2020.

 

[SingmeasongSong]

Mod Edit: don't say that ffs

big fail by SingmeasongSong

Ooooops :rofl: - long day

 

[Toby]

It's tough to do in London but our scouting has gotten a bit better over time. Before that, Chelsea dominated the market in London, they had the right coaching and scouting early on. We were not far behind in recruiting but our coaching left a lot to be desired until recently.

Factor in the apparent relationship to the agent of Sancho, Nelson, Nketiah etc. the club are/were apparently interested in to keep tight. Heard that over here amidst the Nelson -> Hoffenheim loan.

 

[SingmeasongSong]

That’s the way it probably always will be. I think people expect us to be competing for the same players as these European giants when it’s just unrealistic.

In my eyes there’s a sort of pyramid to European football.

Tier 1 - Real Madrid, Barcelona
Tier 2 - Man Utd, Liverpool, Bayern, Juventus, AC Milan, Inter Milan
Tier 3 - Atletico, Arsenal, Dortmund, Ajax, Porto, Benfica, Roma, Lazio, Napoli, Valencia

Tier 1 for clubs where not winning the CL every season is a failure.

Tier 2 for clubs that are traditionally the biggest in their own countries and should be regularly competing at high levels in Europe but are still feeders for the first tier.

Tier 3 for clubs that if there’s great management, ownership and a generational crop of players can compete at the top level but it’s usually in very short windows of maybe only a season.

It seems like an arbitrary system but realising our place in the football eco system should be important when planning the future.

Sad thing is, we could've joined tier 1 around the 2004-06 period. We had it all set up - some ambition and it could've all gone to the top.

 

[Riou]

Sad thing is, we could've joined tier 1 around the 2004-06 period. We had it all set up - some ambition and it could've all gone to the top.

So close...

...look at that team, so close...

 

[Rex Stone]

So close...

...look at that team, so close...

It’s the same for many teams though, there’s peaks and troughs but if you’re not one of the dominant teams at the top of the ladder you’re unlikely to have the funds to keep throwing money at a team.

The rebuild was going well post Invincibles until about 2009 when we started to lose our way in the transfer market.

After that it’s been a sporadic policy without any real concrete vision.

 

[benjamin86]

It’s the same for many teams though, there’s peaks and troughs but if you’re not one of the dominant teams at the top of the ladder you’re unlikely to have the funds to keep throwing money at a team.

The rebuild was going well post Invincibles until about 2009 when we started to lose our way in the transfer market.

After that it’s been a sporadic policy without any real concrete vision.

We did not transition from the invincibles very well and sold to many of those players too early.
Pires, Campbell, Cole and Silva all left far to early, they should have been around to see in the next generation.

 

[Rex Stone]

We did not transition from the invincibles very well and sold to many of those players too early.
Pires, Campbell, Cole and Silva all left far to early, they should have been around to see in the next generation.

We were in the title race in 2008 and 2010. The rebuild was going well but we started chucking away money on complete flops like Chamakh, Squillaci, Gervinho and Andre Santos.

The quality of players we brought in plummeted.

 

[benjamin86]

We were in the title race in 2008 and 2010. The rebuild was going well but we started chucking away money on complete flops like Chamakh, Squillaci, Gervinho and Andre Santos.

The quality of players we brought in plummeted.

might have won it if we kept those players?

 

[Rex Stone]

might have won it if we kept those players?

I felt a lot of those guys were over the hill myself.

Campbell, Silva and Pires didn’t have much left in the tank when we sold them. Cole shouldn’t have been sold though I agree.

 

[Mitch]

We did not transition from the invincibles very well and sold to many of those players too early.
Pires, Campbell, Cole and Silva all left far to early, they should have been around to see in the next generation.

Pires was moved on at the right time, was injured much of following season at Villarreal. Plus Pires openly said he forced the move as he was unhappy about being subbed off in the CL final.

Campbell got old over night in final season with us and all of the sudden became very error prone. Plus there was rumours of personal and mental problems at the time.

Gilberto was moved on at the right time, he was 31 or 32 and had lost his starting spot to Flamini that season. Hence why he went to Greece instead of another top club.

Cole was a big lose but he forced the move.

 

[MutableEarth]

We were in the title race in 2008 and 2010. The rebuild was going well but we started chucking away money on complete flops like Chamakh, Squillaci, Gervinho and Andre Santos.

The quality of players we brought in plummeted.

This is it. Our recruitment suffered severely and I attribute that to a lack of foresight regarding squad building. There was a noticeable change when it came to profile of players signed after that point - there didn't seem to be a real plan. Gervinho kinda made sense to be fair but he just didn't have the conviction or confidence to be effective when it mattered.

Around that time was the first major sign that Wenger was starting to strain under having to micro-manage so many areas of the club and not really bolstering his staff at the time.

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

We were in the title race in 2008 and 2010. The rebuild was going well but we started chucking away money on complete flops like Chamakh, Squillaci, Gervinho and Andre Santos.

The quality of players we brought in plummeted.

Yeah after Invincibles Wenger managed to build second best attack in Europe with Fabregas, Hleb, Rosicky and still found some gems like Adebayor and Sagna.

Then in 2009 Gazidis joins. A bit downhill from there transfer wise.