Alexis Sanchez (Out)

[samshere]

Arsenal doesn't stick their transfer intake in a chequing account. And if it isn't directly invested, it's used in lieu of money that would otherwise be borrowed a much higher rate than what you've quoted.

Discounting cashflows doesn't mean much when your cousin takes a few extra months to pay you back the couple hundred he owes you, but it's absolutely a factor for the #s related to Alexis.

What are you going to use to discount cashflows if not the national bank interest rate, I'd like to know?

 

[GeorgiaGunner]

What are you going to use to discount cashflows if not the national bank interest rate, I'd like to know?

Benchmarks help determine the rate, to be sure, but more accurately, expected return is used. Arsenal can (and does) do more productive things with their money, and their models likely reflect that, or money saved by not having to borrow at the prime rate (4-5%).

 

[bingobob]

@RonaldoMadness let me break it down for you. Using easy to manage rounded figures Alexis scored 25 league goals and Group got 15 so rounded easy example 40 league goals in total.

The season ends and Wenger has a decision to make. How do we score more and not rely on people coming off the bench late on as it's better to score early and force the opposition to play.

OK. Let's sign a new striker. But what about the 40 goals already scored. Well Giroud can only play as the 1 striker in either a back 3 or back 4. Alexis can play as a front 1 an attacking mid two or left of an attacking three and still score. He may score less than 25 but still be a threat. Okay let's buy a new striker capable of scoring more as we know Giroud has a maximum limit as displayed over the years.

We sign Lacazette. Even though it's a risk you know you've still got Alexis there if necessary and can put him back up front. You hope for the best and everything is going swimmingly. You feel secure you can move players on. Then out of nowhere PSG come in with an audacious bid. One that is simply too good to turn down. 70m a player in the last year of his contract and allows you to sell abroad. You decide to sanction the sale.

You now realise you've sold your best player and are relying on an unproven untested player to lead the line and not only meet your initial expectations they now have to exceed them with huge pressure. You realise this isn't the time to sell Giroud because even though you were happy to sell him the game has changed. You need to keep a proven tested goal scorer. But you also realise Giroud isn't good enough. So you sanction the signing of another goal scorer. Someone capable of playing the positions Alexis did. Or actually is it possible Lacazette can play those positions and you buy an out and out striker? Either way you sign your goal scorer knowing you've plenty of options.

You tell Giroud hey Olivier I know it's a big year. At the moment you're firmly in the plans. Let's see how this goes. If by January Lacazette and the new signing are firing on all fronts then we will let you leave in January. If one of them hasn't done as expected then you'll be playing regularly with us.

And then you buy the rest of the players needed to strengthen the squad with the 70m and the 100m kitty we have plus the proceeds from Sczesney, Chambers, Gibb and Wilshere.

Hopefully I haven't missed any detail out. If I have rather than quoting this essay just tag me and ask the question

 

[bingobob]

Agreed that previous fees can be heavily discounted, but I still don't think we can compete with the clubs who are in on most of the players you've listed, however.

Would have loved to have seen Auba in a Gunners kit, though.

Assuming our initial allowed spend was 125 (in the middle of the often quoted 100 - 150) and we sell Alexis (70m) Chambers 20m, Wilshere 15m Gibbs 10 and Sczensey 10m that will be 250m in total. I've said before we need to do as Juventus done with the Pogba money or Sp**s and Liverpool done with their big sales and reinvest it back in the squad. That'll be enough to address three of the four areas I've identified and already includes the initial outlay for Lacazette. We may even move others on (Perez, Jenkinson, Money from rebuying and selling Wellington Silva, Campbell, The Ox) raising further funds that could make all four possible.

 

[samshere]

Benchmarks help determine the rate, to be sure, but more accurately, expected return is used. Arsenal can (and does) do more productive things with their money, and their models likely reflect that, or money saved by not having to borrow at the prime rate (4-5%).

The Prime lending rate is 1.25% in England. But lets take your rate - 5%, that puts 2.5m as the value at risk. A club valued at 1.2bn isn't going to make decisions based on 2.5m.
Your entire point was garbage btw, the tvm was just the most obvious thing wrong. Even with Sanchez I'd say City, Chelsea have way better squads than us and Liverpool, Sp**s and Utd are near our level. So retaining Sanchez doesn't translate to 50% improved chances of making the top four, but something closer to 100%.

 

[Lookin' for a new Baby]

Sanchez spotted in Paris with PSG football director

He's wasting his time then, Wenger said he's staying!!!!

 

[HairSprayGooners]

@bingobob I read everything and while I see your point it's just ludicrous logic to expect us to sign two strikers for 50m + in one window knowing we're playing in a 3421 formation and already have three strikers at the club not including Theo who can also play there as last resort.

Signing someone like Belotti or another striker from abroad is as much of a risk as signing Lacazette. We signed Lacazette so we wouldn't have to use Alexis Sanchez as the striker.

Lacazette isn't a replacement for anyone but he's coming here as a goalscorer and will score lots of goals, if he has a bad patch then Giroud will start.

Like I said before you can't buy two 50m+ strikers and keep one benched. Wenger would not spend 100m on strikers unless that striker was in the Mbappe category who can play LF and be unreal there. Players like Belotti can't do that, they're out and out strikers.

By January if both players are firing on all fronts what formation are we playing to accomadate for this?

I'm sorry it just isn't viable at all, I get your point about wanting to replace the goals but it's stupid. As a striker Alexis scores 35-40 a season barring injuries. As a wider player he scores 20-30 a season (all comps obvs) when Mahrez is on top form and playing in all competitions he would reach 20-25 goals with us.

We'd then have Lacazette up front hopefully bagging that 30-40 a season and Giroud on the bench making up for Alexis OUTPUT. It's not the output I'm worried about anyway, it's the tenacity, aggression and workrate he offers along with that.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

Assuming our initial allowed spend was 125 (in the middle of the often quoted 100 - 150) and we sell Alexis (70m) Chambers 20m, Wilshere 15m Gibbs 10 and Sczensey 10m that will be 250m in total. I've said before we need to do as Juventus done with the Pogba money or Sp**s and Liverpool done with their big sales and reinvest it back in the squad. That'll be enough to address three of the four areas I've identified and already includes the initial outlay for Lacazette. We may even move others on (Perez, Jenkinson, Money from rebuying and selling Wellington Silva, Campbell, The Ox) raising further funds that could make all four possible.

It's meant to be 150m with first years wages and agent fees/signing on fees. So you can expect the transfer fee budget to be 80-100m exactly the same as last summer.

And it makes complete sense because like I said before we bid 87.5m for Mbappe, bought Lacazette for £46.5m and then our last bid for Lemar was £40m totalling to around the same fee as offered for Mbappe.

I think we're now looking at raising the extra funds with player sales to sanction a larger movement for Lemar.

 

[kraphtous]

You don't sell Sanchez unless you have Lemar/Mahrez or other players of similar quality lined up. Not even for 100m-- that is if we have ambitions to achieve something this season.

That way you cover all bases: Lacazette, Lemar and Mahrez cover all the goals/assists Alexis offers, plus possibly improve us if they are all successful signings.

If we can't get them both then it's not worth it to sell him for any price, there's no player of his quality that wants to joins us right now.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

You don't sell Sanchez unless you have Lemar/Mahrez or other players of similar quality lined up. Not even for 100m-- that is if we have ambitions to achieve something this season.

That way you cover all bases: Lacazette, Lemar and Mahrez cover all the goals/assists Alexis offers, plus possibly improve us if they are all successful signings.

If we can't get them both then it's not worth it to sell him for any price, there's no player of his quality that wants to joins us right now.

I agree. But the only viable way of doing that and making it worth our while to sell Alexis is if we get a fee for him that's big enough to cover Mahrez and Lemar.

Otherwise you may as well just keep him for a year on that 140k a week contract.

This is a huge two weeks for the football club.

 

[bingobob]

@bingobob I read everything and while I see your point it's just ludicrous logic to expect us to sign two strikers for 50m + in one window knowing we're playing in a 3421 formation and already have three strikers at the club not including Theo who can also play there as last resort.

What I said was "so you sanction the signing of another goal scorer. Someone capable of playing the positions Alexis did. Or actually is it possible Lacazette can play those positions and you buy an out and out striker? Either way you sign your goal scorer knowing you've plenty of options".

So not necessarily a striker unless Wenger feels Lacazette can play in the same positions Alexis did. I know he is on record saying he can play from the left does he feel he can play as part of an attacking midfield two? In which case you look at more traditional goal scoring forwards.

Of course Lacazette was brought into replace Giroud. Giroud has been predominantly first choice for us, do you think we spent 50m on a forward player to keep Giroud as predominantly first choice. Replacing doesn't mean that you sell the player it can also simply mean they move down the pecking order.

Of course bringing in another untested player is a risk. Management is all about mitigating risk. You can't lose Alexis and not attempt to replace him. You have to replace him and accept that your replacement can flop and so you mitigate that risk by keeping a guy who has been your top scorer in four out of five years. Who has scored more than ten league goals running 5 years in a row.

Thats what Id do anyway. It is the most logical thing to do. You are losing 25 goals a season you need to replace that. You also accept that it may not work so you keep Giroud and strengthen other areas with proven players like Van Dijk, Matic etc.

 

[Ewarwoowar]

Or actually is it possible Lacazette can play those positions and you buy an out and out striker?

Can't foresee a like for like Sanchez replacement, therefore I would hope for an out and out striker, someone physically imposing and technical ability of Giroud but with pace.
A front 2 of Laca and said person,, or laca slightly behind to catch onto knock downs and flick ons.

That would give us the versatility to cope with sides that play high or very deep, I've seen nothing from Laca yet to suggest He can unlock a tight knit, physical defense, early doors yet though.

 

[Lookin' for a new Baby]

[QUOTE="

That would give us the versatility to cope with sides that play high or very deep, I've seen nothing from Laca yet to suggest He can unlock a tight knit, physical defense, early doors yet though.[/QUOTE]
That worried me when I watched the montage of goals he'd scored. I said at the time he won't get that much space against most teams in the PL who park the bus.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

@bingobob that isn't how it works though bro.

Mahrez and Lemar would replace Alexis' output over the course of a season and Lacazette would just add to that.

Also what's the point in signing a 70m+ striker? If that's the case and the offer on the table for Alexis is £70m then we may as well keep him for another year

 

[HairSprayGooners]

[QUOTE="

That would give us the versatility to cope with sides that play high or very deep, I've seen nothing from Laca yet to suggest He can unlock a tight knit, physical defense, early doors yet though.

That worried me when I watched the montage of goals he'd scored. I said at the time he won't get that much space against most teams in the PL who park the bus.[/QUOTE]

That isn't his job to do that, his job is to score goals. hence why we'd need a Mahrez and Lemar if Alexis leaves.

Lacazette isn't replacing Alexis he's simply the goalscorer up front we've been craving for years

 

[Lookin' for a new Baby]

That worried me when I watched the montage of goals he'd scored. I said at the time he won't get that much space against most teams in the PL who park the bus.

That isn't his job to do that, his job is to score goals. Hencd why we'd need a Mahrez and Lemar if Alexis leaves.[/QUOTE]
He can't score goals if he doesn't have the space in the penalty box to do so.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

That isn't his job to do that, his job is to score goals. Hencd why we'd need a Mahrez and Lemar if Alexis leaves.

He can't score goals if he doesn't have the space in the penalty box to do so.[/QUOTE]

Don't be ridiculous he makes his own space with movement and timing of runs. I don't understand this argument at all, Giroud scored 16 league goals for us in his best season being a quite frankly average finisher. With Özil and Alexis making chances for Lacazette he will bag a hatful because he's a top class finisher.

 

[Lookin' for a new Baby]

He can't score goals if he doesn't have the space in the penalty box to do so.

Don't be ridiculous he makes his own space with movement and timing of runs. I don't understand this argument at all, Giroud scored 16 league goals for us in his best season being a quite frankly average finisher. With Özil and Alexis making chances for Lacazette he will bag a hatful because he's a top class finisher.[/QUOTE]
I'm not saying he won't score goals, just that it won't be as easy when lower team come to the Emirates with an organised defence to get a point. The penalty area will be congested. I'm not judging him on the pre- season matches either, I hope he'll score 30 +, I'm just saying it won't be easy.

 

[bingobob]

@bingobob that isn't how it works though bro.

Mahrez and Lemar would replace Alexis' output over the course of a season and Lacazette would just add to that.

Also what's the point in signing a 70m+ striker? If that's the case and the offer on the table for Alexis is £70m then we may as well keep him for another year

At least we agree we need to do something. My stance is different. Use what we have plus what we get rebuild the squad and build it to suit. You're wanting to add Mahrez and Lemar to replace Alexis. That's fine.

Don't understand your point re the money. Alexis leaves we get nout next year for him. I'd prefer to keep him and integrate a Lemar into the team now (still feel we need to address the other areas) but if we've 70m on the table from abroad then it's a very close we should sell because I think we can do more with Alexis being abroad and 70m on top of our remaining money and sales. It'll set us up for years to come as opposed to rebuilding for years to come.

 

[2Smokeyy]

Isn't Sanchez back in training tomorrow?

I'm sure we'll hear something real soon regarding his future.