Alexis Sanchez (Out)

[Mrs Bergkamp]

Why's Alexis demanding so much anyways, if PSG's not going to match his demands then no one will.

He's done that to leave City as his only suitor.

 

[al-Ustaadh]

Agreed -- that's all very important, but near impossible to value, so I didn't try. Was looking only at short term £ trade offs (as the board is far more likely to do than we as fans are) -- again, to quote myself, "not saying it's best for the club in the long term, or that I'd like him to be sold."

I think the pounds tradeoff is minimal, especially if he's only on 140,000 p/w for one more season. That's pretty cheap compared to what most footballers in his value bracket are earning. We'd be making a steal even though we'd lose him at the end of the season.

 

[GeorgiaGunner]

I think the pounds tradeoff is minimal, especially if he's only on 140,000 p/w for one more season. That's pretty cheap compared to what most footballers in his value bracket are earning. We'd be making a steal even though we'd lose him at the end of the season.

Forgone transfer fee, not salary, would be the main concern [thread kind of starts over at this point]

 

[al-Ustaadh]

Forgone transfer fee, not salary, would be the main concern [thread kind of starts over at this point]

Yes, yes. And to finish the roundabout: this could be viewed as us paying our way into the CL again.

And as Wenger has harped on in the past: what is important is getting into the CL.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

I also have an economics degree. I'll put my thoughts down.

Alexis Sanchez, this season, if no contract is signed, is worth £7m to us (140k a week current deal) Can we find an attacker of similar quality for £7m? Lol. Obviously not.

With the current additions I'd expect us to make top 4 with Alexis, meaning he's worth the CL money as well let's say £50m. Without him, not so sure.

His replacement is likely to be Mahrez at £40m. Meaning unless we sell for around 90-100m it's not worth it, better of keeping him for 7m making CL and then letting go for free while pocketing £50m CL money and the draw of the competition.

 

[RoadrunnerReloaded]

More nebulous "you're wrong" posturing with zero backup. I hope to god you're not doing valuation work discounting at the prime rate -- your clients / LPs would be pulling their head out. The prime rate is an artificial benchmark used for lending, created by Dow Jones -- given the fickle nature of the 'asset' (that is, the intake directly attributable to Alexis...he could get hurt, underperform, pout, etc.), the discount rate would be well into 2 digits -- forget about the prime rate that everyone seems to be so obsessed with.

And I never said I knew the true % increase in CL chance, just that a 100 p.p. jump would be worth ~50MM (in 2018 dollars), and, given that we didn't make the CL with Alexis last year, the jump empirically cannot exceed 50 (or whatever CL is worth). Moreover, in my first post I admitted "Not saying it's best for the club in the long term, or that I'd like him to be sold" -- this includes hits to goodwill, and a few other things that are basically impossible to parse at the moment. Perhaps you should be the one to re-read the threads that you've directed me towards?

You've missed the point. Your "calculation" doesn't work the way you act like it does. You can't even assume that making the CL is only worth ~50M in 2018-19. It will likely be worth more than that in raw numbers alone. That combined with the fact you can't actually know what % change makes your entire exercise worthless. Its just subjective opinion really with some acronyms pasted on top to make it look better.

You aren't even coming close into taking into account all the variables affected by missing the Champions league for the second straight year or all the negative side effects of selling Alexis this summer from toxic fan backlash to the reputation hit we take which can affect all sorts of things from players wanting to join us to growing our global fan base which in turn affects our coming sponsorship deals to simply being unable to replace his value on the pitch with the money received.

This is why what you attempted to "calculate" is meaningless. It's not a sound approach to trying to analyze the economic impact of selling or not selling Alexis on Arsenal FC. The value to Arsenal of keeping Alexis and making the Champions League is inherently a lot more than just the TV money from the CL next season.

 

[Tir Na Nog]

It's not about the money with Alexis ffs, it's more about if he's going to force a move or not. If he's not going to make a fuss about the whole thing then he'll be here for next season at least.

Wenger has already said numerous times that Alexis isn't for sale at any price and that he wants to keep his best players. This isn't 2011 we don't need the money that'd come in for him.

 

[al-Ustaadh]

You've missed the point. Your "calculation" doesn't work the way you act like it does. You can't even assume that making the CL is only worth ~50M in 2018-19. It will likely be worth more than that in raw numbers alone. That combined with the fact you can't actually know what % change makes your entire exercise worthless. Its just subjective opinion really with some acronyms pasted on top to make it look better.

You aren't even coming close into taking into account all the variables affected by missing the Champions league for the second straight year or all the negative side effects of selling Alexis this summer from toxic fan backlash to the reputation hit we take which can affect all sorts of things from players wanting to join us to growing our global fan base which in turn affects our coming sponsorship deals.

This is why what you attempted to "calculate" is meaningless. It's not a sound approach to trying to analyze the economic impact of selling or not selling Alexis on Arsenal FC. The value to Arsenal of keeping Alexis and making the Champions League is inherently a lot more than just the TV money from the CL next season.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

It's not about the money with Alexis ffs, it's more about if he's going to force a move or not. If he's not going to make a fuss about the whole thing then he'll be here for next season at least.

Wenger has already said numerous times that Alexis isn't for sale at any price and that he wants to keep his best players. This isn't 2011 we don't need the money that'd come in for him.

It is about the money it always is na nog

 

[Garrincha]

Why do the vast majority of clubs not go down this route of keeping players then? Hits the 2 year mark & they usually deal.

Always the Dortmund example but in those cases it was to the rival! If the player in each case agreed to a move elsewhere would they not have sold?

 

[Tir Na Nog]

It is about the money it always is na nog

If it was about the money why would he turn away all advances from PSG of all clubs?

Wenger is risking losing Alexis on a free because it gives us a better chance of competing next season than selling him and having to try and replace him.

 

[DerDeutscheMann]

I also have an economics degree. I'll put my thoughts down.

Alexis Sanchez, this season, if no contract is signed, is worth £7m to us (140k a week current deal) Can we find an attacker of similar quality for £7m? Lol. Obviously not.

With the current additions I'd expect us to make top 4 with Alexis, meaning he's worth the CL money as well let's say £50m. Without him, not so sure.

His replacement is likely to be Mahrez at £40m. Meaning unless we sell for around 90-100m it's not worth it, better of keeping him for 7m making CL and then letting go for free while pocketing £50m CL money and the draw of the competition.

This hit me so hard i fell almost down from my chair...

 

[Tosker]

all we really know is that he has a very busy agent who is up for dealing with just about anyone

what Alexis himself wants is still unknown

 

[al-Ustaadh]

 

[Liam Slamcock]

I also have an economics degree. I'll put my thoughts down.

Alexis Sanchez, this season, if no contract is signed, is worth £7m to us (140k a week current deal) Can we find an attacker of similar quality for £7m? Lol. Obviously not.

With the current additions I'd expect us to make top 4 with Alexis, meaning he's worth the CL money as well let's say £50m. Without him, not so sure.

His replacement is likely to be Mahrez at £40m. Meaning unless we sell for around 90-100m it's not worth it, better of keeping him for 7m making CL and then letting go for free while pocketing £50m CL money and the draw of the competition.

That's assuming Sanchez knuckles down and we get back into the Champions League, something we failed to do last season against far weaker opposition and without the Thursday/Sunday combo handicap.

What's your calculations for failing to qualify for CL?

 

[tap-in]

I also have an economics degree. I'll put my thoughts down.

Alexis Sanchez, this season, if no contract is signed, is worth £7m to us (140k a week current deal) Can we find an attacker of similar quality for £7m? Lol. Obviously not.

With the current additions I'd expect us to make top 4 with Alexis, meaning he's worth the CL money as well let's say £50m. Without him, not so sure.

His replacement is likely to be Mahrez at £40m. Meaning unless we sell for around 90-100m it's not worth it, better of keeping him for 7m making CL and then letting go for free while pocketing £50m CL money and the draw of the competition.

Alexis cost us £32m for 4 years, that's £8m per year. You forgot to use your economics degree to factor in his value for the coming season.

 

[bingobob]

If it was about the money why would he turn away all advances from PSG of all clubs?

Wenger is risking losing Alexis on a free because it gives us a better chance of competing next season than selling him and having to try and replace him.

I agree. But glass half empty we seen how talks over the future of Wenger, Özil and Alexia derailed our season. Certainly Wenger agreed his own situation never helped. If Alexis stays and doesn't sign every press conference will be how is hos mood, is he participating as normal, oh you lost do you feel that's because Alexis isn't committed? Oh look Alexis has signed a pre contract with PSG do you feel he will still give 100%. It's January Alexis hasn't signed with you or elsewhere do you feel he is waiting till the end of the season to sign for Man City. You are playing Man City this weekend can you trust Alexis to play? Throw in the Ox as well as let's face it he is in the same boat.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

That's assuming Sanchez knuckles down and we get back into the Champions League, something we failed to do last season against far weaker opposition and without the Thursday/Sunday combo handicap.

What's your calculations for failing to qualify for CL?

If Alexis doesn't agree to knuckle down he'll be sold, Wenger wouldn't keep a player that point blank doesn't want to play for the football club. It'd be pointless.

If we fail to qualify for the CL whilst keeping Alexis then we're simply in the same position as if we sold Alexis for £50m and bought in Mahrez for around £40m.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

Alexis cost us £32m for 4 years, that's £8m per year. You forgot to use your economics degree to factor in his value for the coming season.

Oh, was the deal £32m in payments over 4 years then?

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

I think teams look at Sanchez an see a top player they can get for cheap. But then his agent comes with ridiculous wage demand and they back off.