Expectations from Emery's first season, 2018/19

[shootxhakashoot]

Problem is the number of very good teams continues to grow. Remember the days of the "Big Four"? And before that for some years it was effectively a "Big Two"?

When we have eight or ten very good teams we will either have to move up a gear or forget our title aspirations.

I support Emery because he is our manager and I want him to do well with us but I do not support the Board because the board does not support our managers.

Its all relative, you either make the necessary decisions, investments to compete or you dont and there is no magic wand to wave to make it right with that either. City took years of pumping silly money in to get to this level which proves its not all just about that.
There are no prizes for 8th/9th place so I think the board and everyone involved is starting to do the necessary the way I see it. Before Wenger came along Arsenal were a 5th/6th/7th place team before that still they were a 1st/2nd placed team under George Graham and before that again they were mediocre. It goes in cycles and no one has the right to be at the top all the time. That said to stick with the same failing system and ideas that have not been working to move the club forward for well over a decade would certainly not have shifted anything. Also when you say managers, you mean manager, singular, there has only been one manager under the Kroenke regime, Im not a supporter of them per se but that isnt exactly a big sample size.
I think the board had been very supportive of the previous manager actually, overly so but enough is enough. As per my previous post we will see what happens with the new manager and just how much "support" a manager at this club can get from the board, I suspect none of us know the full story on what has gone on and we will find out the reality in coming months based on incomings under the new regime, the proof will be in the pudding. Sometimes the support that can be given is as much as a persons ego allows....

 

[arsmile]

i thinking getting back in the CL is the objective for the next season

which is ironic- given how much stick Arsène got for making it the measuring stick of success for two decades.

won't be easy either...there are at least 4 or 5 better teams than us at the moment....

 

[Mo Britain]

Its all relative, you either make the necessary decisions, investments to compete or you dont and there is no magic wand to wave to make it right with that either. City took years of pumping silly money in to get to this level which proves its not all just about that.
There are no prizes for 8th/9th place so I think the board and everyone involved is starting to do the necessary the way I see it. Before Wenger came along Arsenal were a 5th/6th/7th place team before that still they were a 1st/2nd placed team under George Graham and before that again they were mediocre. It goes in cycles and no one has the right to be at the top all the time. That said to stick with the same failing system and ideas that have not been working to move the club forward for well over a decade would certainly not have shifted anything. Also when you say managers, you mean manager, singular, there has only been one manager under the Kroenke regime, Im not a supporter of them per se but that isnt exactly a big sample size.
I think the board had been very supportive of the previous manager actually, overly so but enough is enough. As per my previous post we will see what happens with the new manager and just how much "support" a manager at this club can get from the board, I suspect none of us know the full story on what has gone on and we will find out the reality in coming months based on incomings under the new regime, the proof will be in the pudding. Sometimes the support that can be given is as much as a persons ego allows....

Although there is room for variations and it is not an automatic equation if we want to be in the CL every year we will need to be one of the 4 teams who invests most in the squad - this can mean buying players or having a fantastic academy or a balance of the two.

It is possible to be in the top four forever and aye. Barcelona and Real Madrid manage it in Spain. By following the above rule. The anomaly is to do it for some years without having this spending which was the case with the fag-end of the Wenger years until last season.

The fear of people like myself, who do not trust Kronke based on his track record, is that our club will settle on a financial model which just depends staying in the premiership and occasionally fighting for a cup and qualifying for Europe. If what you save on players and fees is less than what you make from qualifying then for a natural spending conservative like Kronke, it might be a tempting proposition.

 

[shootxhakashoot]

i thinking getting back in the CL is the objective for the next season

which is ironic- given how much stick Arséne got for making it the measuring stick of success for two decades.

won't be easy either...there are at least 4 or 5 better teams than us at the moment....

I dont think Sp**s, Man U and Chelsea and arguably Liverpool are better than us collectively in terms of man for man. They are just either better organised or more driven. Man City are better than us as they have put stupid money into every single position in their side to try and ensure success, they also have arguably the best manager in the world (x2 if you believe the Arteta lovers) and Man U have done the same yet failed so far so that shows you can spend money and still fail. We can catch these sides with investment in the squad in key positions and reclaiming our identity as Arsenal football club and fighting and thinking about and for every single game, I think the latter is more important as I belieive these players can be organised and motivated more than they have been actually. We wont know until a few games in about how well/quickly Emery can do this but he is making the right noises about his intentions for me.

 

[Dj_sds -]

Its all relative, you either make the necessary decisions, investments to compete or you dont and there is no magic wand to wave to make it right with that either. City took years of pumping silly money in to get to this level which proves its not all just about that.
There are no prizes for 8th/9th place so I think the board and everyone involved is starting to do the necessary the way I see it. Before Wenger came along Arsenal were a 5th/6th/7th place team before that still they were a 1st/2nd placed team under George Graham and before that again they were mediocre. It goes in cycles and no one has the right to be at the top all the time. That said to stick with the same failing system and ideas that have not been working to move the club forward for well over a decade would certainly not have shifted anything. Also when you say managers, you mean manager, singular, there has only been one manager under the Kroenke regime, Im not a supporter of them per se but that isnt exactly a big sample size.
I think the board had been very supportive of the previous manager actually, overly so but enough is enough. As per my previous post we will see what happens with the new manager and just how much "support" a manager at this club can get from the board, I suspect none of us know the full story on what has gone on and we will find out the reality in coming months based on incomings under the new regime, the proof will be in the pudding. Sometimes the support that can be given is as much as a persons ego allows....

Awesome post. The narrative that the board doesnt support our manager seems false. And although kroenke isnt putting money in the club, he isnt taking any out of the club. Mismanagement, among other things has been the downfall of arsenal. The fabregas, nasri, van persie and sanchez fees are absolutely ludicrous. Numerous players running down their contracts has been the norm at arsenal for ages. That has nothing to do with the board and is just mediocre management. In any other business environment this would get you fired. Im not a big supporter of the board and they are susceptible to some of the blame, but alot of arsenals failings wasnt in their control.

 

[shootxhakashoot]

The fear of people like myself, who do not trust Kronke based on his track record, is that our club will settle on a financial model which just depends staying in the premiership and occasionally fighting for a cup and qualifying for Europe. If what you save on players and fees is less than what you make from qualifying then for a natural spending conservative like Kronke, it might be a tempting proposition.

Maybe we will but if that is what happens then everyone connected at the club has the right to protest and that is the next step. Im not a Kreonke cheerleader I hate what he stands for with a passion, hunting and killing, Walmart and guns, sucking Arsenal dry.That said maybe this clean slate with a dedicated, spread out team of talents may bring better results and may be a chance for them to show what can be done with the club.
The fascination Kroenke et al had for Wenger imo was the siren promise that he could do it all without spending as much as everyone else. Its an attractive promise, especially for someone in on things mainly as an investor. Its ok being told that but less attractive when we slipped out of the CL and started taking a real term financial hit and thats why the change. Surely they MUST be savvy enough business people to know that without real tangible success their investment suffers. The events of the last month or two suggest that they may yet do the right thing by the club and fans for me. Its in their interest after all.

 

[shootxhakashoot]

Awesome post. The narrative that the board doesnt support our manager seems false. And although kroenke isnt putting money in the club, he isnt taking any out of the club. Mismanagement, among other things has been the downfall of arsenal. The fabregas, nasri, van persie and sanchez fees are absolutely ludicrous. Numerous players running down their contracts has been the norm at arsenal for ages. That has nothing to do with the board and is just mediocre management. In any other business environment this would get you fired. Im not a big supporter of the board and they are susceptible to some of the blame, but alot of arsenals failings wasnt in their control.

Exactly and you know what, they offered support in the form of DOF, that was arrogantly, publicly sneered at by Wenger, sneered at and shown contempt. It would have cost the club money to do that, yet all they were doing was trying to show support.
We dont know all the goings on but that is one occasion there where the manager was offered support and didnt want it. How the hell do we know what transfer funds were made available to this man and why take it on trust/sentimentality/hearsay that he wasnt offered more? Maybe just maybe the sad truth was that Wenger didnt want to spend it out of the same pure arrogance and autocracy that wouldnt contemplate letting someone else have an element of control at the club.

 

[OnlyOne]

As long as the players have fun, I'm happy, win, lose or draw, just have fun.

 

[shootxhakashoot]

As long as the players have fun, I'm happy, win, lose or draw, just have fun.

I think we've been in the fun zone for about 12 odd years mate. time for a different approach methinks. Esp when one of the said players is on £350k a week, fun isnt a proportionate work benefit vs the average person for that sort of money imo (but of course wouldnt hold against if it was youve got to take what you can in this life).

 

[Jury]

I think with a few additions that hit the ground running, we can get enough points to be where it matters at the business end of the season. It won’t be a disaster if we aren’t, because improvement and reasons to believe we’re on the right track are more important. Looking at the amount of room for improvement we have based on the disaster of last season, it should be easy to identify.

 

[Slartibartfast]

The reason the relationship is rough and not exact, is because it’s not really about money; it’s about the quality of the players. Every manager is looking to buy an Alli and a Kane for a few £m.That’s the holy grail. Few teams manage it, that’s why Sp**s are performing above their spend.

But the truth is most cheap players are cheap for a reason and most expensive players tend to be more reliable and possess more talent. VVD has transformed Liverpool’s back line for £70m. Mustafi has made a number of key errors at £35m.

I’d argue that Sven is as important as Emery. To get three quality players for £70m will be a tall order unless he sells yet more of the squad.

And Everton may have shelled out recently but their spend over the last few years still means their squad cost is 7th. They came eighth which is not a long way from where you might expect. West Brom finishing 20th when their squad cost was 14th is probably one of the furthest away.

If it's not really about money, then what's the problem? Kane actually came from Sp**s' youth system, so they didn't buy him. Alli turnout out alright, but they've had a ton of misses as well. Not everything they touch turns to gold. The main reason they're in the top 4 is because of Kane (credit due to Pochettino, but without Kane they still aren't a top 4 team and they still haven't won anything even with him).

Liverpool could buy van Dijk because they sold Coutinho. They sacrificed one area and strengthened another. He's still paired with Lovren, who is pretty mediocre. They were a top 4 team this year because of Salah.

Everton finished 8th because they were a long ways off before they had the financial clout and didn't spend the money too wisely. Arsenal is far ahead of where Everton is right now. They're light years ahead of where Everton was before their spending spree. So it shouldn't take nearly as much work to shore up the Arsenal squad. Where was Burnley's squad cost? I doubt it was 7th.

I agree about the importance of Sven Mislintat. In fact, that's been pretty much my point. Here's something I wrote in the transfers forum in response to worries about not being able to afford a proven top class goalkeeper such as Oblak or Alisson (who has somehow managed to gain a reputation as top class based on one season):

Roma bought Alisson from Internacional for £7 million two summers ago. He had only completed one full season as the starter there. Atletico bought Oblak from Benfica for £14 million in 2014 after 16 league appearances for the Portuguese club. He had spent the previous few seasons on loan to smaller clubs in Portugal. Roma and Atletico didn't pay huge transfer fees for these players, nor were they considered at the levels they are now (Alisson spent his first season at Roma behind Szczesny). The secret is to find the next Oblak or Alisson. No reason Arsenal can't do it the same way Roma and Atletico did -- scouting.

Sven has a reputation for being one of the best at identifying talent. He brought in Lewandowski, Aubameyang, Dembele, Hummels, Mkhitaryan, Raphael Guerreiro, Gundogan, Pulisic, Blaszczykowski, Kagawa and just about every other Dortmund player for a decade before he left to come to Arsenal. He didn't pay big money for them either. Hell, he only paid £13.8 million for Dembele summer before last and they turned around and sold him for £96 million last year.

So Arsenal doesn't need to spend £75 million on a center back or £70 million on a goalkeeper or £400 million on frickin' Neymar. It doesn't have to be a squad of galacticos. Let these guys do their jobs. Based on their track records, they should be successful.

 

[Makingtrax]

If it's not really about money, then what's the problem? Kane actually came from Sp**s' youth system, so they didn't buy him. Alli turnout out alright, but they've had a ton of misses as well. Not everything they touch turns to gold. The main reason they're in the top 4 is because of Kane (credit due to Pochettino, but without Kane they still aren't a top 4 team and they still haven't won anything even with him).

Liverpool could buy van Dijk because they sold Coutinho. They sacrificed one area and strengthened another. He's still paired with Lovren, who is pretty mediocre. They were a top 4 team this year because of Salah.

Everton finished 8th because they were a long ways off before they had the financial clout and didn't spend the money too wisely. Arsenal is far ahead of where Everton is right now. They're light years ahead of where Everton was before their spending spree. So it shouldn't take nearly as much work to shore up the Arsenal squad. Where was Burnley's squad cost? I doubt it was 7th.

I agree about the importance of Sven Mislintat. In fact, that's been pretty much my point. Here's something I wrote in the transfers forum in response to worries about not being able to afford a proven top class goalkeeper such as Oblak or Alisson (who has somehow managed to gain a reputation as top class based on one season):

Roma bought Alisson from Internacional for £7 million two summers ago. He had only completed one full season as the starter there. Atletico bought Oblak from Benfica for £14 million in 2014 after 16 league appearances for the Portuguese club. He had spent the previous few seasons on loan to smaller clubs in Portugal. Roma and Atletico didn't pay huge transfer fees for these players, nor were they considered at the levels they are now (Alisson spent his first season at Roma behind Szczesny). The secret is to find the next Oblak or Alisson. No reason Arsenal can't do it the same way Roma and Atletico did -- scouting.

Sven has a reputation for being one of the best at identifying talent. He brought in Lewandowski, Aubameyang, Dembele, Hummels, Mkhitaryan, Raphael Guerreiro, Gundogan, Pulisic, Blaszczykowski, Kagawa and just about every other Dortmund player for a decade before he left to come to Arsenal. He didn't pay big money for them either. Hell, he only paid £13.8 million for Dembele summer before last and they turned around and sold him for £96 million last year.

So Arsenal doesn't need to spend £75 million on a center back or £70 million on a goalkeeper or £400 million on frickin' Neymar. It doesn't have to be a squad of galacticos. Let these guys do their jobs. Based on their track records, they should be successful.

If Sven can keep that up that level of talent spotting for so little money then Arsenal will indeed go from strength to strength. He’ll be worth his weight in gold, but I remain sceptical.

One of Wenger’s biggest mistakes was his belief in Stat DNA which I believe is not yet at the level to identify game changing talent. Robot scouts are in their infancy and like driverless cars there’s a long way to go.

But there’s still a reason why the poorer clubs can’t make an impact on the top 6, bringing through the next Kane and spotting the next Dembele on a shoe string is very very difficult.

And when it comes to small margins the experience of a £100m Ramos type will take you over the line by making crucial blocks and taking out a talented attacker, whilst a £2m Rob Holding could easily give away a penalty at a crucial moment. That’s what you get with money, and why you win the Champions League. The more money you spend, the better your odds, all else is hit and miss.

 

[Penn_]

I really don't know what our expectations should be. I'd like to think that there is enough quality in the squad for an instant impact, we have Aubameyang and Özil ffs. But at the same time the top six teams haven't never looked so close.

Missing out of the top four could be decided by a couple of dodgy ref or individual errors. Chelsea missed out by five points this year, it'll be the same or less next year.

 

[shootxhakashoot]

I really don't know what our expectations should be. I'd like to think that there is enough quality in the squad for an instant impact, we have Aubameyang and Özil ffs. But at the same time the top six teams haven't never looked so close.

Missing out of the top four could be decided by a couple of dodgy ref or individual errors. Chelsea missed out by five points this year, it'll be the same or less next year.

Yep we are talking about a new manager at the moment not a whole new playing staff. Truth is there hasnt been this sort of the change for such a long time it is impossible to know how embedded some negative cultures/problems are in the club or how much impact the new man can have to change these things. The signing of new players will I think give a good indicator of the direction we'll be heading. If Im underwhelmed Ill expect another season of potential dross (with the hope that tactics and man management will make up for it) if we make some good signings and show some intent I hope for top 4 and above but its not actually reasonable to "expect" anything other than a slight upward trajectory this season either way imo.

 

[Brown Gooner]

Winning the EL >>>>> Fourth Place

Why? Because:

1. You win a European Trophy. Something that Arsenal have not won since George Graham’s days. (That was more than two decades ago!)

2. You qualify for the next season’s CL and not only that but now you get a spot in the FIRST POT of the Group Stage Draw alongside the Champions of England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. This could mean an easy group (on paper at least) in the CL.

 

[Slartibartfast]

And when it comes to small margins the experience of a £100m Ramos type will take you over the line by making crucial blocks and taking out a talented attacker, whilst a £2m Rob Holding could easily give away a penalty at a crucial moment. That’s what you get with money, and why you win the Champions League. The more money you spend, the better your odds, all else is hit and miss.

Except we're not debating Arsenal winning the Champions League. There's a 100 percent chance that won't happen in the upcoming season. We're debating being able to beat out two of Sp**s, Chelsea, Liverpool and United for a spot in the top 4. Then we can worry about trying to win the Champions League. Sp**s and Liverpool, at least, aren't going to be spending obscene amounts of money. Chelsea seems to have lost the appetite for it. United has a penchant for spending it foolishly.

And Arsenal doesn't have to choose between Ramos (current market value per CIES Football Observatory: €38.2 million) and Rob Holding (current value: €18.7 million). Sp**s got Davison Sanchez (current value: €91.2 million) for €40 million last summer. Those kind of guys are out there.

Also, Sven Mislintat is not a robot scout. He's a real guy. Really! He's very experienced and has proven over more than a decade to be one of the top guys in his field. He's never had to spend £100 million on every player (or any player) before. Let's see if he can't keep up his track record. Have faith!

 

[Slartibartfast]

Winning the EL >>>>> Fourth Place

Why? Because:

1. You win a European Trophy. Something that Arsenal have not won since George Graham’s days. (That was more than two decades ago!)

2. You qualify for the next season’s CL and not only that but now you get a spot in the FIRST POT of the Group Stage Draw alongside the Champions of England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. This could mean an easy group (on paper at least) in the CL.

That may be the case, but I'd rather play at a consistent high quality through the season and secure a spot in the top 4 than to have to worry about getting to and winning a final in a European cup competition. And there's no reason both can't be achieved. You don't have to pick one or the other.

 

[Tir Na Nog]

Winning the EL >>>>> Fourth Place

Why? Because:

1. You win a European Trophy. Something that Arsenal have not won since George Graham’s days. (That was more than two decades ago!)

2. You qualify for the next season’s CL and not only that but now you get a spot in the FIRST POT of the Group Stage Draw alongside the Champions of England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. This could mean an easy group (on paper at least) in the CL.

I agree, I've experienced all the top 4 stuff between 2006 and 2013, it was not nearly as enjoyable as winning the FA Cup in the years to follow, even in 2017 when we didn't make top 4 I wouldn't have traded that day for 4th spot.

We've never won the Europa League and it'd great to do it, it'd also give us something for when we get back in the CL. Winning it would be a great experience for the group of players.

 

[shootxhakashoot]

That may be the case, but I'd rather play at a consistent high quality through the season and secure a spot in the top 4 than to have to worry about getting to and winning a final in a European cup competition. And there's no reason both can't be achieved. You don't have to pick one or the other.

The run in the Europa was probably the only bright spot this season, its actually not so bad being in it in terms of blooding youngsters and so on, it gave AMN a few games to show what he could do and we actually got to the final with probably the worst setup and prepared Arsenal side Ive ever seen, that is surely something. Couple another season of that plus being able to show up away from home and some sanity and consistency in league results as well and we can have a great season.

 

[lamby22]

I think with a few additions that hit the ground running, we can get enough points to be where it matters at the business end of the season.

Hopefully the fact that so few of our players are going to the World Cup can mean there's a freshness there that other teams might be lacking.