Recent Transfers since 2019 Hit or Miss?

[Macho]

The graphic to discuss:

Copy and paste your own verdicts lets see if we agree with the Athletic.

Nicolas Pepe £72 mil:
Ben White £50 mil:
Thomas Partey £40 mil:
Gabriel Jesus £45 mil:
Martin Ødegaard £34 mil:
Fabio Vieria £35 mil:
Oleksandr Zinchenko: £32 mil:
Willian Saliba £27 mil:
Kieran Tierney £25 mil:
Aaron Ramsdale £30 mil:
Gabriel Magalhaes £27 mil:

Discuss.

 

[Macho]

Spoiler: Full article here

Arsenal excellent, Tottenham flawed: When the ‘Big Six’ splash the cash, has it worked?​

Philip Buckingham
Dec 31, 2022

The summer of 2021 brought Arsenal’s new recruitment strategy into sharp focus. Just over £140million ($168.4m) was spent transforming a squad that had staggered to an eighth-place finish in the previous Premier League season and not one new arrival was over the age of 23.

It was all premeditated, all part of a plan. In came Ben White, Aaron Ramsdale, Martin Ødegaard, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares, each bringing more potential than an obvious pedigree. “That has to be Arsenal,” said Edu, the club’s technical director.


The approach has not always appealed to everyone. “It seems a bit all over the place,” said Gary Neville, the former Manchester United defender turned TV pundit, in the months that followed the marked shift. “Maybe there is [a strategy], but it’s not clear.”

Eighteen months on and it has become crystal clear under Mikel Arteta. An improving young squad has been supplemented by further expensive additions in the summer, including Oleksandr Zinchenko, Gabriel Jesus and Fabio Vieira, and most importantly leaves Arsenal seeing in a new year with a five-point lead at the Premier League summit.

A fairytale this is not. Money has been spent to bring Arsenal this far. Lots of it. And more is now being piled up to tempt Shakhtar Donetsk into selling their prized asset Mykhailo Mudryk in the January window.

Mykhailo Mudryk is next on the shopping list (Photo: PressFocus/MB Media/Getty Images)
An opening bid for the 21-year-old winger has already been rejected, but it will not mark the end of this pursuit. Arsenal want Mudryk to help cover the loss of Jesus to injury and ensure this season of immense promise keeps on bubbling to a springtime boil.

It will inevitably cost. Ukrainian giants Shakhtar have no wish to let their prized asset leave cheaply, despite all the troubles in their homeland. Albeit an ambitious one, their asking price is €100million (£88.5m, $107m) for one of European football’s most gifted youngsters.

Supporters might have reservations over the finances required to sign Mudryk. They remember Nicolas Pepe, whose £72million signing from Lille continues to stand as a lamentable club record, and shudder. There is also historical precedent at Arsenal for some of the biggest purchases not working out — going back further than Pepe there was Alexandre Lacazette and Shkodran Mustafi.

Pepe was Edu’s first big deal as technical director, though the Brazilian was still bedding in at the club and the former head of football Raul Sanllehi was a bigger driving force in the deal. The winger now finds himself on loan to French club Nice after barely leaving footprints in the Premier League sand during his three seasons.

Pepe was a move to forget for the club and player (Photo: Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Pepe was an expensive mistake but he is also an exception to the encouraging rule under Edu, especially since Arteta was picked to become the permanent replacement to Unai Emery three years ago.


Arsenal have predominantly spent money wisely under the current regime. As well as any rival, in fact. Almost every major deal that has followed Pepe has come to feel like a success. Some immediately, others in time.

Thomas Partey was an outlier when joining at the age of 27 for £45million but has since become an experienced mainstay alongside younger team-mates Gabriel, Ramsdale, Ødegaard and White, who were all signed inside a year of each other.

Zinchenko and Jesus, two title winners with Manchester City, have been credited with sharpening mentalities this season within a group that fell short of Champions League qualification in May and perhaps only Vieira, who has so far only started one Premier League game, has struggled to justify the initial £30million outlay that brought him in from Porto this summer.

There are a few niggling concerns over the consistent availability of some of their recent big arrivals given a string of injuries, but that is still seven hits and a maybe without a miss since Pepe. Going back to the summer before Arteta was appointed and you can find William Saliba, a slow burner after loans with Saint Etienne, Nice and Marseille, and Kieran Tierney, two defenders with the ability to elevate Arsenal back into this debate for silverware.

For this piece, we are looking at arrivals in the £20million-plus bracket, so there may be some expensive failures who cost little or nothing when it comes to the initial outlay. David Luiz and Willian’s arrivals from Chelsea did not make as much sense in the same period and did not cost much in fees, but they were expensive in salary terms.

But this is a club that has pragmatically come to know its place in the food chain and embraced it. Arsenal see little value in pursuing ageing players on big money again, such as the club’s one-time club record signing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, or challenging Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool for European football’s elite players.


Mudryk might represent the first change in that if the chase proves successful, but the overall shift has undeniably paid dividends in bringing them this far. The starting XI that came from behind to beat West Ham United on Boxing Day included eight players signed in the Edu years. Only academy graduates Bukayo Saka and Eddie Nketiah, as well as the long-serving Granit Xhaka, buck the developing trend evident in this new Arsenal.

Go through that team and you would be howling at the moon not to find value in Arsenal’s recruitment. White, Ramsdale, Tierney, Saliba, Gabriel, Ødegaard, Zinchenko…

Ødegaard has excelled since joining the club (Photo: Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Partey, who turns 30 next summer, might turn out to be the only starter (excluding the long-serving Xhaka) that Arsenal would struggle to claw back their initial outlay. Some, like Saliba (£27million from Lille) and White (£50million from Brighton), have begun to look like steals in a market that took Wesley Fofana from Leicester City to Chelsea in a £69.5million transfer.

Mudryk would have to do extraordinary things to bring the same sense of value if the investment turns out to be north of £70million. Arsenal, too, will have a number they will not go beyond to make it happen.

January, therefore, brings no guarantees a deal can be done, but Mudryk slots into a model that has not reinvented the wheel. “We don’t sign superstars, we make them,” said Arsène Wenger in 2007. Edu and Arteta, who both played under the Frenchman, continue to see the merits in that strategy, even if it means significant investments are required to set development in motion.

The recruitment is arguably working very well under Edu. Now the next challenge for him is nailing the other two parts of his job — retention and selling. In those two areas, he still has something to prove.

---

It is when you pitch Arsenal’s spending of more than £20million on individual players up against their traditional top-six rivals that real endorsement can be found. Others have committed similar amounts in the past three years to either chase or cement aspirations of the top four but have lived to regret their profligacy.

Like Tottenham, their nearest neighbours. Mistakes have been commonplace in the transfer market during a period that has lacked clarity amid a churn of managers.

Cristian Romero and Richarlison have been smart additions but others quickly began to look flawed. None more so than Tanguy Ndombele, a £55million signing in 2019 now on loan to Napoli, but Steven Bergwijn, Giovani Lo Celso and Sergio Reguilon complete a quartet that have since been moved out of Tottenham in moves to suit all parties. Bryan Gil, another failure to this point, might not be far behind.

Chelsea are another cursed by their business. The jury is out on the merits of their summer splurge, including Wesley Fofana, Marc Cucurella and Raheem Sterling, but even those from past regimes who sanctioned deals for Romelu Lukaku, Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech cannot find value in an approximate outlay of £200million.

 

[Macho]

Spoiler: Part 2

Then there is Manchester United, a club without an obvious recruitment thread and uncomfortable with its mistakes. This summer might have been a relative success thanks to the starts made by Casemiro and Lisandro Martinez but others have been lost in the club’s fogged malaise.

Jadon Sancho might yet come good but heavy losses are unavoidable on the likes of Donny van de Beek and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. Cristiano Ronaldo, albeit at lower financial levels, eventually proved another disastrous addition.

Perhaps only Manchester City and Liverpool, clubs that have found stability and cohesion to win the past five Premier League titles together, can claim to have enjoyed greater success than Arsenal since 2019.

Manchester City do not tend to make many errors of judgment. Rodri, Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias and Erling Haaland are all obvious hits irrespective of the outlays needed to sign them, while Jack Grealish and Kalvin Phillips might benefit from additional time before judgements are cast in stone. Only Ferran Torres flattered to deceive during his time at Manchester City but even that £21million transfer was made good when Barcelona opted to buy the Spaniard for £55million last year.

Liverpool, too, have been savvy in the main. Thiago, Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz have all been sound investments, while Cody Gakpo, the Netherlands’ attacking star at the World Cup, also has value at an initial outlay of £37million ahead of his move from Ajax.

Darwin Nunez was the big summer gamble that has the potential to go south when potentially worth up to £85million, but 11 Premier League starts, including five goals, does not offer a sample size big enough to draw conclusions. Liverpool, all the same, are rarely considered dumb with their recruitment. Limited up against Manchester City and the other big fish in Europe, maybe, but seldom wasteful.

Arsenal, through accident or design, have aligned themselves as closely to Liverpool as any other rival. There are parallels between the two in what they hope to achieve on a healthy but not unlimited budget. Sign players (relatively) young, develop and grow together.

There will be mistakes, like Pepe. It is football’s way, forever unable to navigate the intangibles. But a sensible, unambiguous strategy, driven by talented individuals, will always give clubs a fighting chance.

That has led Arsenal to this point, where a title challenge no longer feels fanciful. They might not have enough, with or without Mudryk, when the all-conquering Manchester City are still around, but recruitment as sharp as any rival since 2019 has helped make up all that lost ground.

 

[Macho]

Nicolas Pepe £72 mil: Miss
Ben White £50 mil: Jury's out
Thomas Partey £40 mil: Jury's out
Gabriel Jesus £45 mil: Jury's out
Martin Ødegaard £34 mil: Jury's out
Fabio Vieria £35 mil: Jury's out
Oleksandr Zinchenko: £32 mil: Jury's out
Willian Saliba £27 mil: Jury's out
Kieran Tierney £25 mil: Jury's out
Aaron Ramsdale £30 mil: Hit
Gabriel Magalhaes £27 mil: Hit

 

[db10_therza]

Strange “journalism”. Double your money on Torres = miss? Harry Maguire = hit? They’re about right with the arse list although I’m not sure I’d classify Partey as an undeniable “hit” just yet (coz of the injuries)

 

[Oxeki]

I agree with the graphics @Nacho posted. Apart from Ben white and Partey who I believe the jury is still out on. If the latter stays injury free for a season, then he has a case.

 

[A_G]

Martin Ødegaard £34 mil: Jury's out

@OnlyOne

 

[Rex Stone]

Obviously hit.

 

[SA Gunner]

Gabriel has not been a hit for me. He is the weakest member in our first team, and has cost us points. He needs to be upgraded upon. But I wont go too hard on him, as Xhaka too has weak points.

As for the rest, I agree yeah.

 

[db10_therza]

@OnlyOne

Seriously though, Ødegaard at 34m is prob the best pick up across all teams since 2019

 

[Riou]

Ben's definitely a hit, been amazing for us this season.

Having supported Ghana at the World Cup due to Partey, I now understand why Nacho is so hard on him...very frustrating player to watch for club and country at the same time

Though would still have him as a hit, been quality last year or so.

The only "miss" is Pepe, and he would have been a hit if Saka didn't develop so well, Nico scored like 20 goals in all comps in 2020/2021...think all our big money signings have been very good for a while now.

Fabio is "jury's still out", but confident he will be a hit in time.

 

[db10_therza]

Gabriel has not been a hit for me. He is the weakest member in our first team, and has cost us points. He needs to be upgraded upon. But I wont go too hard on him, as Xhaka too has weak points.

As for the rest, I agree yeah.

These transfers surely have to be weighted according to their price no? Gabriel has been frustrating but he’s largely been good and at that price he’s a hit no? If we bought him for Maguire money then yeah I’d say he’s underwhelmed

 

[Macho]

Gabriel has not been a hit for me. He is the weakest member in our first team, and has cost us points. He needs to be upgraded upon.

Hit for me, been ever present and barely missed a game, indisputable first choice in his position, brings physicality and authority which we have missed for years. For the price we paid he's been excellent value and there's most likely still some upside.

He could 100% be improved on and he's prob not World Class, but it would take effort to find a clear upgrade. Arteta has shown he is not shook to play right footers on the left side of the pitch and he's yet to do it with him.

 

[A_G]

Context matters with these signings. It’s easy to call Pepe a miss, but he was signed for a manager that didn’t want him and didn’t know how to use him.

He was linked to Liverpool heavily in early 2019 and if he joined them, he would be viewed differently in England I think. Would’ve been the perfect inside forward for Klopp.

 

[Gooner Zig]

I think this depends on what definition a "hit" or a "miss" is. We're going to have wildly different valuations of players based on our own internal definitions. My personal definition of a "hit" is does that player materially improve the first XI/squad.

Gabriel is clearly a "hit" under my definition. In fact, my list ties exactly with The Athletics.

 

[Makingtrax]

Nicolas Pepe £72 mil: - Miss
Ben White £50 mil: - Miss at CB, Hit at RB
Thomas Partey £40 mil: - Hit
Gabriel Jesus £45 mil: - Big Hit
Martin Ødegaard £34 mil: - Hit
Fabio Vieria £35 mil: - Jury’s Out
Oleksandr Zinchenko: £32 mil: - Hit
Willian Saliba £27 mil: - Smash Hit
Kieran Tierney £25 mil: - Hit
Aaron Ramsdale £30 mil: - Hit so far
Gabriel Magalhaes £27 mil: - Hit

 

[Macho]

We're going to have wildly different valuations of players based on our own internal definitions.

Well said. Why I made the thread, I wanted to see what criteria matters to the forum and how heavily they are ranked.

 

[2Smokeyy]

Definitely a hit especially when we signed this player. He’s probably the reason we pulled out of the Ukrainian Plumber deal:



@albakos

 

[Macho]

Context matters with these signings. It’s easy to call Pepe a miss, but he was signed for a manager that didn’t want him and didn’t know how to use him.

He was linked to Liverpool heavily in early 2019 and if he joined them, he would be viewed differently in England I think. Would’ve been the perfect inside forward for Klopp.

Whilst I agree with this and clearly love him to bits, he's been a miss unfortunately. Not cause of his ability though he just didn't fit and the managers didn't really try to make him work (imo).

The fee kinda doomed him from the start, 20-30 mil he would probably be here on a rotational capacity as he'd have way less disdain from the fans and media.

I notice it even more now with how Arteta's treats his players in comparison. You know when a manager is determined to make something work (see White's transition to RB as an example, or Ødegaard keeping his place after some lacklustre performances early on).

 

[El Duderino]

Nicolas Pepe £72 mil: Miss
Ben White £50 mil: Jury's out
Thomas Partey £40 mil: Jury's out
Gabriel Jesus £45 mil: Jury's out
Martin Ødegaard £34 mil: Jury's out
Fabio Vieria £35 mil: Jury's out
Oleksandr Zinchenko: £32 mil: Jury's out
Willian Saliba £27 mil: Jury's out
Kieran Tierney £25 mil: Jury's out
Aaron Ramsdale £30 mil: Hit
Gabriel Magalhaes £27 mil: Hit

Is Tierney really a hit when we got Zynchenko in this season?

Plus he's been injured for a good while in his Arsenal career. Of course it's not been rosiscky or Diaby levels, but he's missed important parts of seasons.

Mind you I like him a lot and I think fans turning on him because he is not fitting the Mikel mold as well as Zynchenko has is a bit premature.

Rest of the jury's out list I'd agree bar yellow box, and maybe Ben White on current form specifically at right back.

Saliba with a shout given his promise.

Tomiyasu is a hit, imo (not on the list).

Too early to call Jesus a hit, for example. And Ødegaard has the caveat of the value paid for him, which makes it hard to gauge.

You get games where you go "yeah, he's got it", but then he has had spells of being invisible.

I guess what I'm personally looking at is consistency, and if we keep this form up the jury won't be really out anymore.