UCL | Basel v Arsenal | Tuesday 6th December 19:45 | BT Sport 2

[Rimaal]

 

[Rex Stone]

@Rex Banner Fair point then, I assumed last 16. I think the last 16 (where I'd imagine the 1st placed sides win the majority of the time) might skew those stats a bit. It is an advantage though.

Yeah I mean if you think about it as well there's 8 last 16 ties compared to only 6 other knockout ties every year so they will skew the statistics.

It's a reason why I'm not a massive fan of stats in football, looking online now there's so many out there for each argument I think it just comes down to how well you do on the day.

 

[MLK79]

The thing about that stat is that both of those guys have played at least 10 more games than he has.

 

[carlito'sway]

 

[MLK79]

Well it's all knockout games, which includes quarter finals and semi finals when the draw is randomised but yeah honestly I've spent a while looking for some decent stats on the matter but there's not many conclusive ones out there.

I did find that if a CL knockout game goes to extra time then the home team wins 66% of the time and if it's a penalty shoot out then the home team wins 57% of the time.

On the other hand I did find this on zonalmarking.com...

Over a sample of 36 matches in total, there is a difference of 27 goals between first and second legs. That means the second legs see 0.75 more goals per game than first legs, which is quite a large difference.

So, considering that second legs are significantly more high-scoring than first legs, would you not rather be playing away in the second leg, where goals for your side count for more?

I've never been a fan of this second leg at home thing. If away goals weren't a thing then sure, play that last game at home. Since they are though, I always think they are ridiculously hard since in a close match up, each away team goal seems to be worth more than 1 since you don't have another game coming up to correct it.

Take a look at our group, we could've easily finished second in this group even though we've been by far the best team in the group. And it would be down to nothing more than Iwobi heading in a ball late in our home match.

 

[Rimaal]

The thing about that stat is that both of those guys have played at least 10 more games than he has.

Yep.

 

[Rimaal]

 

[carlito'sway]

Nice words for Özil from the 3 panelists.

 

[Polar Bear]

What a great night, everything went for us, I can't believe PSG didn't win at home, fantastic. Great we get 2nd leg at home, most teams who get 2nd leg at home go through. Even better no Barecelona, sick and tired of getting them.

 

[SYS]

 

[celestis]

Yeah like Wenger said all they lacked was self belief. They were technically very good .

 

[every little thing]

lucas on the left
walcott on the right
we can score 3 goals in every game

 

[every little thing]

after Özil and sanchez

 

[samshere]

The second leg at home swings it for me. Of all knockout games from 2003-04 to 2013-14 the team that played at home 2nd qualified 63% of the time.

That could also be because the team playing at home 2nd also topped their group. The correct way to interpret that would be to do an analysis of how many times the group topper won the knockout. If its close to 63%, the first stat becomes meaningless.

 

[krackpot]

one of the best passing performances I have seen AFC play, since the old midfield broke up.

 

[4R5Emaniac]

Knock on wood, knocks head.

Reading back as I came across this, i'm reminded that I was thinking early morning what if we could make the final and win it this time. Despite all the criticisms I have for Wenger and justified imo, it would be the crowning glory this man deserves for all he has done. I'd cry like a baby if it happens. Not getting sucked in since its too early still but just wondering.

Anyway, I was worried if the line up would bite us back but it didn't and it added to further confidence towards this squad along with topping the group. First plus point is obviously Lucas' hattrick. 2nd is the fact that he can play right wing pretty well and is a technical player which means my small fear that we lost that profile of player in Joel is no more. 3rd is Gibbs' incredibly encouraging performances and another fear over Monreal's form this season. 5th is Holding, my love at first sight, playing a great game apart from the goal. 6th is Ramsey's disciplined performance. Finally, 7th Xhaka was just brilliant despite one or two instances where he lost his head. 8, 9 and 10 is for Wagner proving me wrong with his team selection, managing the game perfectly and finishing top of the group.

10 on 10 job by the boss and the boys. Happy me!

 

[HK_Gooner]

I admit I was one of the people that thought we should throw a 2nd string side in and save our legs for the weekend. Totally wrong. Wenger knows.

Guess tonight we are looking for Real Madrid and either of Juventus or Lyon to win. Fortunately Lyon can get into the knockout stages with a win so they will have everything to play for.

 

[redanddread]

 

[Axel_Gunner]

Still cant believe psg f*cked it up

They were the better side in both games vs us. But a lot of sh*t in their other group games.

 

[Trilly]

Still buzzing. We actually topped the group.

Would honestly be cruel if we draw Bayern/Real. Yes you have to face the best but let's face them later please.

Will do wonders for this squad's confidence if they actually get past the last 16.