Loss Premier League: Arsenal 0 - 2 West Ham | Thursday 28th December| KO: 20:15 GMT | Prime Video

Prediction

Arsenal 3-0 West Ham

 

[Makingtrax]

He also had a shot right at the keeper when Ode played him in early on, then hit the post from a similar position later. We definitely had good chances

The post shot was clearly our best chance, as the keeper might not have saved that.

 

[Makingtrax]

Appreciate the double reply to my single post

Fotmob had us with 5 big chances created and 5 big chances missed. Most of our 30 shots were not likely to be goals, but to say we didn’t have any clear chances isn’t true.

Regardless, unless my understanding of xG is totally wrong, the logic doesn’t hold. If you have a 1xG on 1 shot, or 1xG on 10 shots, the math works out that you’d on average have a goal based on the chances created in both cases. Saying “an xG of 2.68 over 30 shots means we created poorly” when an xG of 2.68 actually means we created enough that over a larger sample we would expect to have scored nearly 3 goals seems odd. Doesn’t matter if it’s 100 half chances or 3 golden ones. Creating fewer quality chances vs larger volume of lesser chances is irrelevant if they are generating the same xG, that’s kind of the point. It’s an absolute measure. The xG is the literal quantifier of the quality of chances created over a match.

Doing 0.5+0.5+0.5+0.5 has the same outcome as 1+1. One doesn’t suddenly become lesser than the other. Nvm 0.5x8 suddenly being treated as less than 1+1. Maybe I’ve totally missed something though….

EDIT: I saw you mentioned better quality chances since per chance they generated a higher xG. I see that’s a different thing from what I address, although not sure how it’s relevant when our xG was about double regardless (including their penalty, their xG “carved out for them” less than 1xG otherwise). I don’t love xG discussions, I just think that (and I apply this to ourselves) it’s difficult to say you defended well when you would be expected to have conceded nearly 3 goals. The stats suggest it’s more of a “you got away with it”, as repeat performances would have you leak goals. Even if the eye test shows differently. Many games where we have kept a clean sheet but conceded too many shots/chances and I felt we defended poorly. So it’s not an idea I am applying specifically to this match.

A lot of smaller chances does equal a few very good chances in terms of the number of goals it should produce. But in terms of the way the team is playing the many smaller chances is indicative of the eye test that most posters have been talking about on A-M. We are excellent at winning the ball back, keeping possession and producing intricate play outside their box. But the finishing patterns aren’t clinical enough, in comparison to the rest.

 

[Bagels]

A lot of smaller chances does equal a few very good chances in terms of the number of goals it should produce. But in terms of the way the team is playing the many smaller chances is indicative of the eye test that most posters have been talking about on A-M. We are excellent at winning the ball back, keeping possession and producing intricate play outside their box. But the finishing patterns aren’t clinical enough, in comparison to the rest.

Agreed.

Unfortunately in combination with that, it seems that our shooting boots have gone out the window. This isn’t the first time where we had a relatively high xG with nothing to show for it.

There is a degree of ruthlessness in opportunity taking a team must have to belong at the very top. Hopefully we find that again, and soon.

 

[HighburyHigh]

**** the xg rubbish just buy a striker who can score goals.

 

[Dokaka]

@Dokaka - your thoughts on that? I can see that it will not swing the romantics, but realistically, in terms of results, he's doing well?

Feel the exact same way that the people who cannot stand Arteta's brand of football but acknowledge the results do.

Football to me is entertainment. I am simply not entertained by how we play, about as simple as I can put it tbh.

 

[Entropics]

Feel the exact same way that the people who cannot stand Arteta's brand of football but acknowledge the results do.

Football to me is entertainment. I am simply not entertained by how we play, about as simple as I can put it tbh.

Learn from this fan of the European Champions that silverware won't justify suffering Artetaball, if it ever arrives.

 

[kofigunner]

It's not over yet. We did create a load of chances yesterday, West Ham defended well.
Watching Sky Sports News this morning, a Stat that amazed me. Our leading scorers have scored 5 goals, while Man City's has scored 14, and Liverpool 12.

This is our biggest problem. We’re playing with authority, but just aren’t putting our chances away, and when you don’t put away those chances, teams get emboldened. We have to find a way to upgrade in that department if we’re to challenge for anything.

 

[Synical]

We're playing like Chelsea now. A player gets near the goal and you just know it's not going in

 

[MartiSaka]

West Ham defending so deep was definitely a game plan on their part. A fair % of our 30 shots were blocked. xG takes that into account ‘people in the way of shots’ and lowers it accordingly. That’s good defending. I guess the luck you’re talking about comes if the block isn’t clean and a deflection takes the ball past the keeper. Either way though it still means Arsenal aren’t carving out clear cut chances by making incisive passes through those defensive lines in key areas.

Agree defending deep and compactly in the box is a good option against us, especially when we are home. Especially when you have the size in the centre for incoming crosses and we have no aerial threat without Havertz. Still have to execute the plan by remaining well discplined and organised.

With kudus, and bowen through the middle, i think they have some good counter attacking options. They can hold the ball up and also execute efficiently.

Give the amount of ball we had still didnt feel we had a huge number of clear changes, felt the xG was more of an accumulation of lower value chances as u suggest.

 

[ASIF]

Don’t make come to India/pakistan and slap you with a chachapati

For that you have to come out of your mummy's basement Yo yo Gagandeep.

 

[Aussie_gunner123]

During these games where the opposition defend very deep & in the box we've got to start learning to take long shots from outside the box or just on the edge like Rice did on one occasion, it might catch them off guard then. One thing I do on FIFA manager mode is I try and sign a few CM's to rotate around that are capable of those long shots. If we keep Partey & he comes back hopefully he might be able to, his got a good long shot on him.

 

[celestis]

There was a bunch of times in that game where we worked the ball into a good area and they were still scrambling back and then our attacker turned around and passed it backwards.

Was unbelievable stuff. I don’t understand what that’s about when you’re chasing a game honestly. At 0-0 yeah sure whatever but not when you’re chasing.

They've have been doing this for awhile , Gabby , Ben White to a lesser extent Saka and then they hold their hand up afterward , its almost a premeditated decision . Honestly it's too much comfort zone kinda stuff. That's why I say I blame the coaching , quite often we don't pass to better options in front of goal and make it easy on ourselves. It's something they have to address if they want to go up a level .

 

[MA08]

People can say what they like. But its simple you dont lose to West Ham at home during a title fight!! Hes pissed me off tbh!!

The treble winners lost to Brentford at home last season, dropped points against Everton at home. It does not matter whether we lost one or two games. The margin for error is gone now. what matters now is we have to beat Pool at home.

 

[MartiSaka]

They've have been doing this for awhile , Gabby , Ben White to a lesser extent Saka and then they hold their hand up afterward , its almost a premeditated decision . Honestly it's too much comfort zone kinda stuff. That's why I say I blame the coaching , quite often we don't pass to better options in front of goal and make it easy on ourselves. It's something they have to address if they want to go up a level .

Notice it consistently this year, when there is an opportunity to play forward to provide more space for our attackers and the opposition defensive line is not as set, we pass the ball sideways or back to our CM. Arteta is so scared of an incisive attacking pass being turned over.

 

[MartiSaka]

The treble winners lost to Brentford at home last season, dropped points against Everton at home. It does not matter whether we lost one or two games. The margin for error is gone now. what matters now is we have to beat Pool at home.

We are not good enough to go on a city type unbeaten run.

 

[Rain Dance]

During these games where the opposition defend very deep & in the box we've got to start learning to take long shots from outside the box or just on the edge like Rice did on one occasion, it might catch them off guard then. One thing I do on FIFA manager mode is I try and sign a few CM's to rotate around that are capable of those long shots. If we keep Partey & he comes back hopefully he might be able to, his got a good long shot on him.

the idea is not wrong, several long shots forces their midfielders to move outside of their penalty box to mark. Ødegaard, Trossard, ESR, Jorginho and Rice are all capable of shooting from distance

they aren't doing it cause that means turnover

 

[Makingtrax]

Feel the exact same way that the people who cannot stand Arteta's brand of football but acknowledge the results do.

Football to me is entertainment. I am simply not entertained by how we play, about as simple as I can put it tbh.

You can’t be serious? That West Ham squad is nearly half the cost of ours. Mavropanos got the boot to keep Rob Holding. They fought like Trojans, doubled up on all our attackers, blocked shots, kept their shape when all around was mayhem. And then they attacked with venom given half a chance. And should have won 3-0 . . . away ffs. I’d have been so proud of that performance. I don’t care who the manager is, that was entertainment personified. Currently 6th in the league ahead of United, Newcastle and Chelsea. Not sure what you’re expecting for a mid table squad by spend. It’s not going to get much better, CL is a big stretch.

 

[BigPoppaPump]

You can’t be serious? That West Ham squad is nearly half the cost of ours. Mavropanos got the boot to keep Rob Holding. They fought like Trojans, doubled up on all our attackers, blocked shots, kept their shape when all around was mayhem. And then they attacked with venom given half a chance. And should have won 3-0 . . . away ffs. I’d have been so proud of that performance. I don’t care who the manager is, that was entertainment personified. Currently 6th in the league ahead of United, Newcastle and Chelsea. Not sure what you’re expecting for a mid table squad by spend. It’s not going to get much better, CL is a big stretch.

I don't think he actually supports West Ham, he's just a fanboy for Rice so he's desperate for Arteta to succeed now. I bet he was upset West Ham won the game.

 

[Dokaka]

You can’t be serious? That West Ham squad is nearly half the cost of ours. Mavropanos got the boot to keep Rob Holding. They fought like Trojans, doubled up on all our attackers, blocked shots, kept their shape when all around was mayhem. And then they attacked with venom given half a chance. And should have won 3-0 . . . away ffs. I’d have been so proud of that performance. I don’t care who the manager is, that was entertainment personified. Currently 6th in the league ahead of United, Newcastle and Chelsea. Not sure what you’re expecting for a mid table squad by spend. It’s not going to get much better, CL is a big stretch.

I can be proud of the effort put in by the lads while also being generally dissatisfied with our approach. It's one thing playing like this against the best team in the league, it's another when we do the exact same thing against Fulham and get smashed 5-0 because the lads aren't as up for it because it's ****ing Fulham.

I'm not and will not argue that firing Moyes is the objectively correct choice in terms of running the club, I'm simply just expressing how our approach is killing my desire to watch us play football. We were so much more exciting back in 21/22, so it's not like Moyes making that happen is completely off the table, but it hasn't been the case for a while now.

I don't think he actually supports West Ham, he's just a fanboy for Rice so he's desperate for Arteta to succeed now. I bet he was upset West Ham won the game.

At least I like an Arsenal player.

 

[Aussie_gunner123]

the idea is not wrong, several long shots forces their midfielders to move outside of their penalty box to mark. Ødegaard, Trossard, ESR, Jorginho and Rice are all capable of shooting from distance

they aren't doing it cause that means turnover

Actually I never thought of that, if we take those shots it could cause more room for Saka, Martinelli, GJ etc to cut back inside.