Prediction
Arsenal 3-0 West Ham
The post shot was clearly our best chance, as the keeper might not have saved that.He also had a shot right at the keeper when Ode played him in early on, then hit the post from a similar position later. We definitely had good chances
A lot of smaller chances does equal a few very good chances in terms of the number of goals it should produce. But in terms of the way the team is playing the many smaller chances is indicative of the eye test that most posters have been talking about on A-M. We are excellent at winning the ball back, keeping possession and producing intricate play outside their box. But the finishing patterns aren’t clinical enough, in comparison to the rest.Appreciate the double reply to my single post
Fotmob had us with 5 big chances created and 5 big chances missed. Most of our 30 shots were not likely to be goals, but to say we didn’t have any clear chances isn’t true.
Regardless, unless my understanding of xG is totally wrong, the logic doesn’t hold. If you have a 1xG on 1 shot, or 1xG on 10 shots, the math works out that you’d on average have a goal based on the chances created in both cases. Saying “an xG of 2.68 over 30 shots means we created poorly” when an xG of 2.68 actually means we created enough that over a larger sample we would expect to have scored nearly 3 goals seems odd. Doesn’t matter if it’s 100 half chances or 3 golden ones. Creating fewer quality chances vs larger volume of lesser chances is irrelevant if they are generating the same xG, that’s kind of the point. It’s an absolute measure. The xG is the literal quantifier of the quality of chances created over a match.
Doing 0.5+0.5+0.5+0.5 has the same outcome as 1+1. One doesn’t suddenly become lesser than the other. Nvm 0.5x8 suddenly being treated as less than 1+1. Maybe I’ve totally missed something though….
EDIT: I saw you mentioned better quality chances since per chance they generated a higher xG. I see that’s a different thing from what I address, although not sure how it’s relevant when our xG was about double regardless (including their penalty, their xG “carved out for them” less than 1xG otherwise). I don’t love xG discussions, I just think that (and I apply this to ourselves) it’s difficult to say you defended well when you would be expected to have conceded nearly 3 goals. The stats suggest it’s more of a “you got away with it”, as repeat performances would have you leak goals. Even if the eye test shows differently. Many games where we have kept a clean sheet but conceded too many shots/chances and I felt we defended poorly. So it’s not an idea I am applying specifically to this match.
Agreed.A lot of smaller chances does equal a few very good chances in terms of the number of goals it should produce. But in terms of the way the team is playing the many smaller chances is indicative of the eye test that most posters have been talking about on A-M. We are excellent at winning the ball back, keeping possession and producing intricate play outside their box. But the finishing patterns aren’t clinical enough, in comparison to the rest.
@Dokaka - your thoughts on that? I can see that it will not swing the romantics, but realistically, in terms of results, he's doing well?
Feel the exact same way that the people who cannot stand Arteta's brand of football but acknowledge the results do.
Football to me is entertainment. I am simply not entertained by how we play, about as simple as I can put it tbh.
This is our biggest problem. We’re playing with authority, but just aren’t putting our chances away, and when you don’t put away those chances, teams get emboldened. We have to find a way to upgrade in that department if we’re to challenge for anything.It's not over yet. We did create a load of chances yesterday, West Ham defended well.
Watching Sky Sports News this morning, a Stat that amazed me. Our leading scorers have scored 5 goals, while Man City's has scored 14, and Liverpool 12.
West Ham defending so deep was definitely a game plan on their part. A fair % of our 30 shots were blocked. xG takes that into account ‘people in the way of shots’ and lowers it accordingly. That’s good defending. I guess the luck you’re talking about comes if the block isn’t clean and a deflection takes the ball past the keeper. Either way though it still means Arsenal aren’t carving out clear cut chances by making incisive passes through those defensive lines in key areas.
There was a bunch of times in that game where we worked the ball into a good area and they were still scrambling back and then our attacker turned around and passed it backwards.
Was unbelievable stuff. I don’t understand what that’s about when you’re chasing a game honestly. At 0-0 yeah sure whatever but not when you’re chasing.
The treble winners lost to Brentford at home last season, dropped points against Everton at home. It does not matter whether we lost one or two games. The margin for error is gone now. what matters now is we have to beat Pool at home.People can say what they like. But its simple you dont lose to West Ham at home during a title fight!! Hes pissed me off tbh!!
They've have been doing this for awhile , Gabby , Ben White to a lesser extent Saka and then they hold their hand up afterward , its almost a premeditated decision . Honestly it's too much comfort zone kinda stuff. That's why I say I blame the coaching , quite often we don't pass to better options in front of goal and make it easy on ourselves. It's something they have to address if they want to go up a level .
We are not good enough to go on a city type unbeaten run.The treble winners lost to Brentford at home last season, dropped points against Everton at home. It does not matter whether we lost one or two games. The margin for error is gone now. what matters now is we have to beat Pool at home.
the idea is not wrong, several long shots forces their midfielders to move outside of their penalty box to mark. Ødegaard, Trossard, ESR, Jorginho and Rice are all capable of shooting from distanceDuring these games where the opposition defend very deep & in the box we've got to start learning to take long shots from outside the box or just on the edge like Rice did on one occasion, it might catch them off guard then. One thing I do on FIFA manager mode is I try and sign a few CM's to rotate around that are capable of those long shots. If we keep Partey & he comes back hopefully he might be able to, his got a good long shot on him.
You can’t be serious? That West Ham squad is nearly half the cost of ours. Mavropanos got the boot to keep Rob Holding. They fought like Trojans, doubled up on all our attackers, blocked shots, kept their shape when all around was mayhem. And then they attacked with venom given half a chance. And should have won 3-0 . . . away ffs. I’d have been so proud of that performance. I don’t care who the manager is, that was entertainment personified. Currently 6th in the league ahead of United, Newcastle and Chelsea. Not sure what you’re expecting for a mid table squad by spend. It’s not going to get much better, CL is a big stretch.Feel the exact same way that the people who cannot stand Arteta's brand of football but acknowledge the results do.
Football to me is entertainment. I am simply not entertained by how we play, about as simple as I can put it tbh.
I don't think he actually supports West Ham, he's just a fanboy for Rice so he's desperate for Arteta to succeed now. I bet he was upset West Ham won the game.You can’t be serious? That West Ham squad is nearly half the cost of ours. Mavropanos got the boot to keep Rob Holding. They fought like Trojans, doubled up on all our attackers, blocked shots, kept their shape when all around was mayhem. And then they attacked with venom given half a chance. And should have won 3-0 . . . away ffs. I’d have been so proud of that performance. I don’t care who the manager is, that was entertainment personified. Currently 6th in the league ahead of United, Newcastle and Chelsea. Not sure what you’re expecting for a mid table squad by spend. It’s not going to get much better, CL is a big stretch.
You can’t be serious? That West Ham squad is nearly half the cost of ours. Mavropanos got the boot to keep Rob Holding. They fought like Trojans, doubled up on all our attackers, blocked shots, kept their shape when all around was mayhem. And then they attacked with venom given half a chance. And should have won 3-0 . . . away ffs. I’d have been so proud of that performance. I don’t care who the manager is, that was entertainment personified. Currently 6th in the league ahead of United, Newcastle and Chelsea. Not sure what you’re expecting for a mid table squad by spend. It’s not going to get much better, CL is a big stretch.
I don't think he actually supports West Ham, he's just a fanboy for Rice so he's desperate for Arteta to succeed now. I bet he was upset West Ham won the game.
Actually I never thought of that, if we take those shots it could cause more room for Saka, Martinelli, GJ etc to cut back inside.the idea is not wrong, several long shots forces their midfielders to move outside of their penalty box to mark. Ødegaard, Trossard, ESR, Jorginho and Rice are all capable of shooting from distance
they aren't doing it cause that means turnover